By:
TJHalva |
Comments [10] | Category:
VFA Original | 10/10/2008 3:23:11 PM CT
The Princeton Election Consortium published an article a few weeks back discussing the diminishing effect of race in our elections; its pretty much a must read. Within the article a graph appears tracing the evolution of racial bias in public polling, the results were surprising. Based on the chart African American candidates have just recently started over performing relative to election polling. This information is all very interesting, but there is no data on the Bradley Effect for a National campaign; it is impossible to tell how race will impact the 2008 Presidential Election. It is thus plausible to assume, for the sake of comparison, that the Bradley Effect is real and will affect Obama.
I've taken the liberty to include a racial bias coefficient into the projection algorithm for a little experiment. The Princeton graph provides a ceiling (or floor, depending on how you look at it) for racially induced bias in public polling at around 5%. I've taken that 5% and incorporated it into the algorithm as follows:
Obama's Projection:
I calculate his projection and then subtract 5% of it to arrive at his adjusted projection.
McCain's Projection:
I start by figuring out the number of undecided voters in at the end of the initial projection; this is done by subtracting 100 from McCain's and Obama's initial projection. I then add this number to McCain's projection along with 5% of Obama's initial projection to arrive at McCain's adjusted projection.
The English version of all this reads as follows: I assume that 5% of Obama's support is racially tinged so I add it to McCain's total while subtracting it from Obama's. I then also assume that all the currently undecided voters, 5% are racist and as a result will vote for McCain. The result of this application can be seen in the map below:
If the Bradley Effect manifests itself in the upcoming election, Obama would still win.
While I was messing around with the math I wondered what the outcome would be if all currently undecided voters suddenly moved to McCain en masse:
A tie? But this year a tie goes to the African American. In the event of a tie the decision rests within the House of Representatives. Each state's delegation receives one votes. Based up upon the current and probable makeup of the 111th Congress, Barack Obama would almost assuredly become the 44th President.
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Measuring the Bradley Effect
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