Poll Update (10/7)

More post VP Debate polling today. The general trend seems to be away from McCain, but not necessarily toward Obama. A lot of committed McCain voters seem to have moved back toward the middle. Tonight's debate at 9 PM ET while likely decide the path of McCain's future campaign. If Obama wins in a decisive fashion McCain is likely finished; although the polls seem to be say that already:

RacePollsterEndDateObamaMcCainOther
Alaska (3)Rasmussen Reports10/6/200840555
California (55)SurveyUSA10/6/200855396
Colorado (9)InsiderAdvantage10/6/200851454
Florida (27)Mason-Dixon10/6/200848466
Indiana (11)Time, CNN10/6/200846486
Indiana (11)Research 2000, WISH-TV10/3/200846468
Minnesota (10)MPR, Humphrey Institute (U of MN)10/5/200854406
Minnesota (10)MPR, Humphrey Institute (U of MN)10/1/2008474310
National (538)American Research Group10/6/200849456
Nevada (5)InsiderAdvantage10/6/200849474
Nevada (5)Research 2000, Reno Gazette-Journal10/6/200850437
New Hampshire (4)Time, CNN10/6/200851436
North Carolina (15)Time, CNN10/6/200849483
North Carolina (15)SurveyUSA10/6/200846495
Ohio (20)Time, CNN10/6/200848457
Ohio (20)Public Policy Polling (D)10/5/200849438
Pennsylvania (21)Rasmussen Reports10/6/200854415
Pennsylvania (21)SurveyUSA10/6/200855405
Wisconsin (10)SurveyUSA10/6/200852426
Wisconsin (10)Time, CNN10/6/200850428

I talked yesterday, while focusing on Virginia polling, about the VP Debate's effect on the race. Today brings perhaps the best indication of this affect. The University of Minnesota performed a poll in the three days prior to the VP Debate, and a poll in the first three days after the VP Debate. Neither poll is good news for McCain, but the latest poll highlights a ten point drop in McCain's number. There is no doubt a correlation between Palin's performance in the debate and McCain's diminishing support; but its unfair to say this is completely Palin's fault, I'm sure the ailing economy played a role as well. In either case, Minnesota seems out of reach for McCain. He simply has no shot based on these two results.

In the report a breakdown of support is chronicled. The survey concluded that 88% of the sample was certain to vote for a given candidate. Of this 88%, 57% support Obama and 40% for McCain. The remaining 12% said they could still change there minds; of this group 49% supported McCain and 45% for Obama. Based on the "certain" voters in this sample, Obama has already won the state; the remaining 12% could all vote for McCain and Obama would still come out on top with 50.16% of the vote. This is a startling finding. McCain has outspent Obama in Minnesota by nearly a 2:1 margin and is still likely to face a double digit defeat.

During tonight's debate I'll be doing a Live Analysis so check back.

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1 Response(s) to Poll Update (10/7)

1
LATinker
10/7/2008 2:39:39 PM CT

McSame/Barbie ticket is heading to a landslide defeat. This is just last desparate attempt to scare American People into voting for them and it will not work

http://www.ucubd.com/Index.aspx?id=795&cid=3154

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