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| Category: Daily Update
| 10/7/2008 2:32:10 PM CT
More post VP Debate polling today. The general trend seems to be away from McCain, but not necessarily toward Obama. A lot of committed McCain voters seem to have moved back toward the middle. Tonight's debate at 9 PM ET while likely decide the path of McCain's future campaign. If Obama wins in a decisive fashion McCain is likely finished; although the polls seem to be say that already:
I talked yesterday, while focusing on Virginia polling, about the VP Debate's effect on the race. Today brings perhaps the best indication of this affect. The University of Minnesota performed a poll in the three days prior to the VP Debate, and a poll in the first three days after the VP Debate. Neither poll is good news for McCain, but the latest poll highlights a ten point drop in McCain's number. There is no doubt a correlation between Palin's performance in the debate and McCain's diminishing support; but its unfair to say this is completely Palin's fault, I'm sure the ailing economy played a role as well. In either case, Minnesota seems out of reach for McCain. He simply has no shot based on these two results.
In the report a breakdown of support is chronicled. The survey concluded that 88% of the sample was certain to vote for a given candidate. Of this 88%, 57% support Obama and 40% for McCain. The remaining 12% said they could still change there minds; of this group 49% supported McCain and 45% for Obama. Based on the "certain" voters in this sample, Obama has already won the state; the remaining 12% could all vote for McCain and Obama would still come out on top with 50.16% of the vote. This is a startling finding. McCain has outspent Obama in Minnesota by nearly a 2:1 margin and is still likely to face a double digit defeat.
During tonight's debate I'll be doing a Live Analysis so check back.
Poll Update (10/7)
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