Poll Update (10/2)

Yesterday brought a slew of good results for Obama in traditionally blue states, but today (so far) seems to focus on his gains in red states:

RacePollsterEndDateObamaMcCainOther
Colorado (9)Ciruli Associates9/23/2008444313
Georgia (15)InsiderAdvantage9/30/200844506
Indiana (11)Research 2k, SouthBend Trib9/30/200845469
Iowa (7)Research 2000, KCCI9/30/200855396
Kentucky (8)Rasmussen Reports9/30/200842526
Michigan (17)Public Policy Polling (D)10/1/200851418
Montana (3)Rasmussen Reports10/1/200844524
National (538)Marist College9/30/200849447
National (538)YouGov, Economist (D)9/29/2008474211
Nebraska (5)Rasmussen Reports9/30/200837567
New Hampshire (4)Saint Anselm College9/30/2008493714
New Mexico (5)Rasmussen Reports10/1/200849447
New Mexico (5)SurveyUSA9/30/200852444
North Carolina (15)Rasmussen Reports9/30/200850473
Ohio (20)Democracy Corps (D)10/1/200849438
Virginia (13)Mason-Dixon10/1/200845487

A serious trend is starting to emerge, a trend the McCain campaign should not take lightly. Obama has begun to gain traction in Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri, as well as posting leads in Virginia and North Carolina. If McCain simply watches the pro-Obama narrative play out he will lose, I don't even think a national security event could salvage his chances at this point. McCain is playing a blank hand, and needs to get the dealer's attention.

Unfortunately for McCain, he was dealt the VP debate in his moment of greatest need. The debate starts at 9 PM ET (8 CT, 6 PT) and features the mentally inept Sarah Palin vs. Joe Biden's thirty-five year Senate career, should be fun to watch. I'll be watching and posting my comments in a live thread, much like I did during the previous debate.

As another aside, if you count the number of Electoral Votes currently projected as Safe Dem the result is 217. On the other hand John McCain is projected to win just 183 total, a difference of thirty Electoral Votes. Taking a quick look at the scenario probabilities reveals another issue for John McCain. Our model shows Obama with a 14.15% chance of acquiring today's projection. McCain has a much larger percentage, 42.16%, but his tells another story, the great probability of losing.

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6 Response(s) to Poll Update (10/2)

1
Anonymous
10/2/2008 10:02:59 PM CT

The trendlines for Obama in a short time are significant and he will pull a 62 member democratic Senate along with him; including the seats in Kentucky and Mississippi. Jerry Marin
2
Montana
10/3/2008 12:37:32 AM CT

It would be so refreshing to actually see the Senate and House actually get things done for a change. If the Dems can get enough votes, re: filibuster proof, the nasty Republican policy of obstruction politics would be finished. How refreshing would that be?! A Congress that actually accomplishes the people's business instead of playing politics and the blame game with a gotcha throw in for good measure, amazing!
3
Screwed
11/4/2008 11:13:00 AM CT

Montana, you are an Idiot. You do realize if Obama gets elected our country is screwed. Everything this country has worked for is over. Matter fact, I hope Obama does get elected so we can finally start blaming all of the countries problems on the people who REALLY deserve it, the dumb Dems :)
4
Screwed
11/4/2008 11:13:25 AM CT

Montana, you are an Idiot. You do realize if Obama gets elected our country is screwed. Everything this country has worked for is over. Matter fact, I hope Obama does get elected so we can finally start blaming all of the countries problems on the people who REALLY deserve it, the dumb Dems :)
5
wow
11/4/2008 11:13:48 AM CT

Montana, you are an Idiot. You do realize if Obama gets elected our country is screwed. Everything this country has worked for is over. Matter fact, I hope Obama does get elected so we can finally start blaming all of the countries problems on the people who REALLY deserve it, the dumb Dems :)
6
wow
11/4/2008 11:14:54 AM CT

Montana, you are an Idiot. You do realize if Obama gets elected our country is screwed. Everything this country has worked for is over. Matter fact, I hope Obama does get elected so we can finally start blaming all of the countries problems on the people who REALLY deserve it, the dumb Dems :)

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