Indiana Antics

Before the two most recent polls were released in Indiana (Downs Center [4/16], LA Times/Bloomberg [4/14]) Clinton had a comfortable lead of 9.25 percent, on average. A significant shift occurred with the release of these two new polls each showing Obama positioned with a 5 percent advantage; a swing of nearly 15 percent in the span of just a week. How did Hillary manage to squander 15 percent in this crucial state? To answer this question the actions of each candidate during the previous week must be analyzed. In the prior week Barack Obama continued his campaign in Pennsylvania and at one point referred to voters as "bitter" in the face of economic hardship. He also stated that these same "bitter" voters have given up on voting for real issues but rather focus their attention on "guns and religion." At the same time Hillary Clinton toured Indiana seeking to appeal to whiskey drinkers and firearm fanatics while touting herself as the "in touch" candidate countering what the media described as Barack's "bitter" blunder. But the poll numbers don't lie and clearly illustrate that Clinton's rhetoric completely failed.

But perhaps Obama's rise in poll numbers can be attributed to something entirely different. Perhaps people actually do feel "bitter" when they lose their job for bureaucratic reasons. Perhaps his poll numbers increased among those who are in fact "bitter". Perhaps Clinton is out of touch with the real issues. Perhaps she realizes she cannot win on the issues and is instead seeking to appeal to the same demographic for which she derided Obama for referencing; the "guns and religion" vote. Perhaps all of these ifs are true, does Obama then have the nomination wrapped up? The polls appear to be paving the way in either case.

The Indiana primary takes place on May 6th, the same day as North Carolina and fourteen days after Pennsylvania. Indiana has 72 national pledged delegates.

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