Poll Update (9/21)

Florida is close, closer than the McCain camp wants it to be. The Research 2000 poll from Florida shows Obama actually winning amongst seniors; this could mean one of two things. Either the sample is just terribly wrong, which seems to be the most likely (Research 2000 is usually a good pollster though) or senior reasoning has drastically changed following the market's freefall. This is a death omen for McCain if the demographic models are accurate.

The Alabama poll from the Press Register shows Obama getting crushed, but this is expected. Another item draws my attention, undecideds, all twenty three percent of them. Why have Alabamans not made up their mind in proportion to the rest of the country. My first inkling is race, as this appears to be a classic example of the Bradley effect, there is just no way around it.

RacePollsterEndDateObamaMcCainOther
Alabama (9)Press Register9/15/2008255223
California (55)American Research Group9/20/200853398
Florida (27)Research 2k, FL Times-Union9/18/200845469
Florida (27)Miami Herald, SP Times9/17/200845478
Iowa (7)American Research Group9/20/200851445
Iowa (7)Research 2k, Quad City Times9/17/200853398
Minnesota (10)American Research Group9/20/200848475
North Carolina (15)Public Policy Polling (D)9/19/200846468
Ohio (20)University of Cincinnati9/16/2008424810
Virginia (13)American Research Group9/20/200846486

Sarah Palin's coming out party appears to have been pushed back, yet again. The debate format for the VP debate will have shorter question-and-answer segments than those for the presidential nominees. The expectations game is being played, and Palin's bar has been lowered.

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8 Response(s) to Poll Update (9/21)

1
Sims
9/21/2008 9:05:59 PM CT

Forget the polls--all bets are off when it comes to this election. There is a large number of voters that have not even been considered, the new voters. Remember these polls reflect primarily "most likely voters," those who have voted, I believe at least 5 times in the last elections.
2
Sims
9/21/2008 9:08:08 PM CT

The Palin factor will prevent McCain from winning the educated independant vote.
3
oregon
9/21/2008 9:27:32 PM CT

It stikes me as funny that educated voters go for Obama, and the undecideds are mostly in the undereducated column.

Well, Obama would put a chicken in every red-neck pot, while McCain will put every red-necks child into an endless war, and his economics will make us all into low-end workers who keep the rich getting richer on our labor.

Geeez, I guess it does take a little education to understand the world's delimnas, but it should be so apparent after these past 8 years.

Obama will bring more educated voters in future generation because he believes in education, but a vote for Mccain will eliminate our public education system all together.

so, if Iraq hates us for our freedom, does that mean that the GOP hate us for our education?
4
Montana
9/21/2008 11:39:01 PM CT

It is a sad state of affairs when the Republicans finish what Bin Laden started. George & Co. have already squandered 1 trillion on his various wars and profiteering buddies. You would think that would be enough but now he's trying to double down on another throw of the dice. Seems to me he's trying to make sure no matter who is elected, and especially if a Democrat is elected that they will take the heat for all of George's mess. The one thing I'm really worried about is what if things are even worse than we think?
5
too sad to think about
9/21/2008 11:42:22 PM CT

So the bar has been lowered for the debate for Sarah. Does that mean if she can get on the stage, smile nice at the audience and not say anything REALLY stupid, all of the talking heads will declare her the winner?
6
Anonymous
9/22/2008 1:53:02 AM CT

I wish McSenile and Caribou Barbie win this thing. I would love to see America become a second world country... Then I'll move to England.
7
Anonymous
9/22/2008 2:16:31 AM CT

When you add the new voters to the mix, McSenile and Caribou Barbie will get Alaska and Texas; the rest is blue.
8
KCMOLADY
9/22/2008 11:20:23 AM CT

I have confidence that America will see past his color and realize that he is the best candidate and really put the country first instead of seeing the color of this intelligent man.

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