| Comments 
| Category: Daily Update
| 9/17/2008 9:33:33 AM CT
ARG released twenty-five polls today. The new addition did not change our model's output, McCain is still projected to win with 274 Electoral Votes. Of the massive haul by ARG there were really only 4 polls of interest. The Montana poll shows Obama behind just two, which is a large contrast to some other polling done in the same time frame. Ohio is again in the McCain column, but this time by six. Colorado and Nevada are still both very close.
I later added five polls from CNN/Time and our projection changed to Obama 291, McCain 247. The CNN poll showed Obama ahead in both Florida and Ohio, which is good news for the Obama camp.
There was even another swath of polls after our first update; Rasmussen released a few battle ground states, then CBS followed with a new national poll showing Obama with a 5 point lead.
There's also news that a group of hackers (they shouldn't really be referred to as "hackers" because some of the information they obtained is legally public record) broke into Sarah Palin's semi-personal yahoo email accounts and did some snooping. They handed over their haul to WikiLeaks, who has released the information. Their page is getting pounded right now.
Based on the information I've been able to access it does in fact appear that Sarah Palin used these yahoo addresses (firstname.lastname@example.org and email@example.com) for work related matters; there were messages sent to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, and another to her Chief of Staff. Mother Jones best sums up the situation: "Since then, the accounts have been deleted, which could be considered destruction of evidence if a court chose to pursue it." All we're left to wonder is what her password could have been; Ketchikan seems to be the front runner.
I finally got a DC poll. Up until now I had DC's values hard coded because there was no DC information, at all. The release today doesn't really change anything, because Obama's still up by like 70 instead of 80, but at least it makes my code cleaner.
A commenter pointed out that the CNN poll in Florida showed Obama and McCain tied at 48-48; this is true if you are looking at the one-on-one poll, but I've committed to using polls with third party candidates, if available. I'm watching Chris Mathews right now and he just showed the CNN poll in Florida tied at 48-48. A third party candidate changed the election in Florida in 2000 and the media isn't reporting a poll that includes third party candidates, it just doesn't make sense.
Poll Update (9/17)
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