| Comments 
| Category: Daily Update
| 9/15/2008 2:22:26 PM CT
With the last batch of FOX News/Rasmussen polls, John McCain garners his first lead in quite some time, but a closer look at the contributing factors point to what will probably be short lived reign. Recent polling in Virginia has shown the race to be extremely close with possibly a slight lead for Obama, but our model thinks otherwise. The problem is a CNN/Time poll taken at the height of McCain's convention bounce on September 9th. There were no state polls released during or immediately after Obama's convention; the result is a skew in recent data toward McCain as exemplified in Virginia. Our projection will tend to favor McCain until a more sizable number of polls are released to block out the convention affect.
The Pennsylvania and New York results are outliers. If you look at the Pennsylvania graph its fairly easy to tell that the McCain has been consistently less than tied, in fact this is his highest recording ever in Pennsylvania. Combine the pollster (FOX News) and the terrible week McCain had this result just doesn't seem credible, but it gets added to the database none the less. The New York poll from Siena is meaningless. It came at the height of McCain's convention bounce and is his largest haul in New York since April 13th. McCain should disregard this result and stay away from the expensive New York media market with his 84 million.
I'll also go out on a limb here and say the 500 point drop in the DOW will not have a positive effect on McCain's number's in states like Pennsylvania or Ohio.
I've also written a detailed procedure regarding how polls are selected, used and applied that anybody visiting this site should probably read.
Poll Update (9/15)
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