Poll Update (9/15)

With the last batch of FOX News/Rasmussen polls, John McCain garners his first lead in quite some time, but a closer look at the contributing factors point to what will probably be short lived reign. Recent polling in Virginia has shown the race to be extremely close with possibly a slight lead for Obama, but our model thinks otherwise. The problem is a CNN/Time poll taken at the height of McCain's convention bounce on September 9th. There were no state polls released during or immediately after Obama's convention; the result is a skew in recent data toward McCain as exemplified in Virginia. Our projection will tend to favor McCain until a more sizable number of polls are released to block out the convention affect.

The Pennsylvania and New York results are outliers. If you look at the Pennsylvania graph its fairly easy to tell that the McCain has been consistently less than tied, in fact this is his highest recording ever in Pennsylvania. Combine the pollster (FOX News) and the terrible week McCain had this result just doesn't seem credible, but it gets added to the database none the less. The New York poll from Siena is meaningless. It came at the height of McCain's convention bounce and is his largest haul in New York since April 13th. McCain should disregard this result and stay away from the expensive New York media market with his 84 million.

I'll also go out on a limb here and say the 500 point drop in the DOW will not have a positive effect on McCain's number's in states like Pennsylvania or Ohio.

RacePollsterEndDateObamaMcCainOther
Colorado (9)FOX News, Rasmussen Reports9/14/200846486
Florida (27)FOX News, Rasmussen Reports9/14/200844497
New York (31)Siena9/10/2008464113
Ohio (20)FOX News, Rasmussen Reports9/14/200845487
Ohio (20)SurveyUSA9/14/200845496
Ohio (20)Suffolk University9/13/2008424612
Oregon (7)Moore Information (R)9/11/2008433720
Pennsylvania (21)FOX News, Rasmussen Reports9/14/200847476
Utah (5)Rasmussen Reports9/10/200832644
Virginia (13)FOX News, Rasmussen Reports9/14/200848484
Virginia (13)SurveyUSA9/14/200850464

I've also written a detailed procedure regarding how polls are selected, used and applied that anybody visiting this site should probably read.

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16 Response(s) to Poll Update (9/15)

1
Anonymous
9/15/2008 3:52:40 PM CT

2
Anonymous
9/15/2008 7:55:39 PM CT

Utah sucks
3
Anonymous
9/15/2008 9:21:03 PM CT

What is the margin of error on these polls? The numbers aren't very meaningful without that....
4
JerryTheAngel
9/16/2008 4:31:54 AM CT

Utah is home to the Mormons. It's no secret that they hate black people.
5
SteveInOregon
9/16/2008 6:00:22 AM CT

I'm having a hard time believing the Oregon numbers; I don't think McCain is that close.
6
Anonymous
9/16/2008 6:27:35 AM CT

Rasmussen has McCain ads on their website....and fox is not exactly known to be un biased. Why should we believe these numbers?
7
Anonymous
9/16/2008 8:04:03 AM CT

Wake up people. What is it you don'e believe about the polls americans are sick of pretty boy and his speechs we are now getting seroius about who will be in the white house.
John and Sarah are the best for the job.
8
Anonymous
9/16/2008 9:03:36 AM CT

This site is owned by the repub's that's why the number don't seem to match any of the other polling sites.
9
Anonymous
9/16/2008 9:50:26 AM CT

John McShame will win only because the Neocons won't give up the power they have now in the WH. It's a sad day when McShame was down in the polls prior to the primaries only to rise to the top like a turd. All turds float. He was selected then and he'll be selected come selection day. We're not all stupid, we know what's going on. The selection is rigged, the neocons will continue to win just like what happened in 2000. The selection will prove that. Too bad Obama and the rest of the people in this country doesn't know that.
10
redneck
9/16/2008 9:58:31 AM CT

There is no questions: Obama is the only hope!
Hard for me to admits it, but still I have some brain left.

redneck for Obama
11
Anonymous
9/16/2008 10:30:53 AM CT

Obama made the one single major mistake of his run by no selecting Hillary. He seems to forget that a Presidential race is the quest for power to make the "changes" that you believe your country needs. The only problem with is that you have to get elected first. Is Mr. Obama playing to be a major figure and "First African-American" Candidate with a real chance of wining or does he really wanted to win this thing and secure his election and being for real "The First Half-African American" President of this great nation? He lost this election the time he did not selected Hillary, PERIOD!!!!
12
Jennifer
9/16/2008 11:54:40 AM CT

I dont believe these polls. ALL LIES!!
13
Anonymous
9/16/2008 11:55:53 AM CT

What do u expect with FOX in colaboration with this? PLEASEEEEEEEEEE people - wake up, do u believe this?
14
Anonymous
9/16/2008 11:59:22 AM CT

Why would you believe all the lies that John McSHAME is putting out in ads about Obama? Come on, do you listen to what Senator Obama has to see of do you just see a black face and will not note vote for that? LISTEN TO WHAT HE IS SAYING, it makes sense. Dont let us have to suffer 4 more years of BANKRUPTCY. I need to purchase a house and can't. Please vote for Obama!
15
Anonymous
9/16/2008 12:42:18 PM CT

don't worry....these are not new voters.....
16
Anonymous
9/21/2008 3:48:02 PM CT

Its ridiculous that McCain ,whose main economic advisor Phil Graham and and Graham's bureaucrat wife who engineered the savings and lone debacl, and who was a Keating Five mamber- trading cash and favors for legilsation that helped that convicted felon Charles Keating- is now a born again regulator - don't make me laugh!

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