Poll Update (9/14)

Yet another poll shows Minnesota within striking distance for McCain, but like Washington I just don't see it happening. The ultra competitive Senate race will further push already high turnout, likely favoring Obama. There was also a poll released in Iowa showing Obama with a 12 point lead; this result is likely the product of the severe flooding in Cedar Rapids and the US Government's poor response; the combination of the Iowa and Minnesota polls is peculiar because the neighboring states are demographically similar. I struggle to understand the mechanisms at work in the two most recent Minnesota polls. The collapse report for the Minnesota I35-W Bridge is due out a few weeks before the election and will have a great impact on both the Senate and Presidential races. The very release of the report will favor Obama as Governor Pawlenty was directly responsible for appointing Carol Molnau to oversee infrastructure, a job she clearly did not do well. People in the Twin Cities are furious about the bridge; any item in the report further linking the Republican Governor to the collapse will have dire consequences for McCain.

RacePollsterEndDateObamaMcCainOther
Delaware (3)Rasmussen Reports9/13/200855432
Iowa (7)Des Moines Register9/10/200852408
Minnesota (10)Star Tribune9/12/2008454510
New Jersey (15)Research 20009/11/200850419
Utah (5)Dan Jones9/11/2008246214
Washington (11)Elway Poll9/8/200845.53816

I finally found a source for the Elway poll. I took the two results and averaged them in the database.

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26 Response(s) to Poll Update (9/14)

1
Anonymous
9/14/2008 2:13:46 PM CT

Mn is a majority democratic state. I lived there for almost 40 years and seldom saw them vote republican.
2
Brenda
9/14/2008 2:35:55 PM CT

I can't believe we have such stupid american citizens, living in Pa in is not a battle ground state, we are so sick of both McCain and Palin lies but no solutions to any policy the refuse to talk about excerp war. I sure hope americans are smarter than the canadians have been blogging that we are if we pick the McCain/Palin ticket. I don't know how to speak in toungue nor do I want to learn is this old dog croaks and she becomes the wicked witch of the US
3
Justine
9/14/2008 3:46:25 PM CT

I agree with you Brenda! I am a Pennsylvanian, I must say, I have yet to run into many McCain/ Palin suppoters. We are working hard to get out the word, hopefully all will pay off. I am completely disgusted with many of the polling results, I believe that the race is not this close, I really don't know who these pollers are, anyone that I have spoken to has not been contacted what- so -ever. I am educating as many voters as I possibly can, my husband is commited to doing the same. Obama/ Biden 2008!
4
Bluemonday
9/14/2008 4:32:37 PM CT

I truly beileve that the network news media is part of the spin in this election. It is up to us the regular people of America to seek the facts of what is out there about this race. I truly think that a part of this polling results truly reflect the fact that race in this race is a factor. But I hope that "We the people" will come to ther realization that we are at risk. Our own prejudices are so strong that we are willing to sacrifice our standing in the world view, we are willing to sacrifice our own personal financial recovery because a black man is trying to lead us. I can't believe that we would just allow our country to continue to spiral out of control. Money is green people and all of us need a strong economy to move forward. We can't fail people. We just can't.
5
reggie1298
9/14/2008 5:07:09 PM CT

Bluemonday,
Are you saying that if a voter doesn't side with Obama it is only because of Obama's color? What about the fact that he's a socialist (undeclared.) Our economy? Where is the funding for his proposed $1 trillion in new spending coming from? We sacrifice our standing in the world view if Obama is not elected?
I don't know wether you are more scared of McCail/Palin or simply incredibly shallow.
6
Bald ex-Soldier
9/14/2008 5:22:04 PM CT

Reggie1298, I would rather spend 1 trillion on the people of the USA than continue to hemerage 330 Million a DAY in the Republican War of Terror (btw, how is the Republican War on Drugs going?!!!)
Anyway, McCain has shown his true colors and I won't vote for him for the same reason I won't vote for Hillary - He will do Anything to Win - He doesn't have a plan, he doesn't have moral high ground, and he doesn't have an accurate moral compass.
At the very least Obama has a plan, but MORE importantly Obama has vision, hope, and is willing to challenge the USA to be better. Just what we need!

From Minnesota and Proud to have served the People of the USA as a soldier.
7
Enough!!
9/14/2008 5:27:10 PM CT

He will win and win big.
8
If You were The Boss... which team would you hire?
9/14/2008 5:32:37 PM CT

If You were The Boss... which team would you hire?

With America facing historic debt, multiple war fronts,
stumbling health care, a weakened dollar, all-time high
prison population, skyrocketing Federal spending, mortgage
crises, bank foreclosures, etc. etc., this is an unusually
critical election year.

Let's look at the educational background of the
candidates and see what they bring to the job:
Obama:
Occidental College - Two years.
Columbia University - B.A. political science with a
specialization in international relations.
Harvard - Juris Doctor (J.D.) Magna *** Laude

Biden:
University of Delaware - B.A. in history and B.A. in
political science.
Syracuse University College of Law - Juris Doctor (J.D.)
vs.

McCain:
United States Naval Academy - Class rank 894 out of 899
(meaning that, like George Bush, McCain was at the bottom of
his class)

Palin: Hawaii Pacific University - 1 semester
North Idaho College - 2 semesters - general study
University of Idaho - 2 semesters - journalism
Matanuska-Susitna College - 1 semester
University of Idaho - 3 semesters - B.A. in journalism

Now, which team are you going to hire to lead the most
influential nation in the world?
9
Steve
9/14/2008 5:43:07 PM CT

The Elway Poll is legit. But it is not 7 points. Nate over at 538 shorthanded it to 7.5 points because he averaged two sets of numbers. The result depended on how you framed the question. As a Obama-McCain pairing, Obama leads by 6 (45-39, IIRC). As a Obama/Biden-McCain/Palin pairing, Obama leads by 9 points (46-37).
10
carol
9/14/2008 5:44:53 PM CT

Justine, God bless your heart. Work hard coz we need Obama in the white house otherwise........
11
Anonymous
9/14/2008 5:45:53 PM CT

Bald ex-soldier, Good job, try to enlighten Reggie 1298
12
BobbyK
9/14/2008 6:31:06 PM CT

It seems clear that the job of the main stream media is to keep up the appearance of a close election so they can keep their ratings high. Whether or not in collusion with the right wing, this helps the republicans with their vote stealing. If the polls are close, who will question the stolen votes? Our forefathers fought, bled and died for our most precious freedom, our freedom to vote for our leaders. When will Americans rise up against this theft of our freedoms????
13
ks dem
9/14/2008 7:24:37 PM CT

I notice that the Rasmussen poll site proudly displays an ad for McCain...um. How does that work on the impartial polling scale?
14
Jan
9/14/2008 9:33:13 PM CT

I grew up in SE PA, near Philly. I knew many racially biased people there in the suburbs. If Obama loses, I fell that PA WILL BE RECOGNIZED ACROSS USA AS RACIALLY BIASED OR INSENSITIVE.
15
Sabreen
9/14/2008 11:16:38 PM CT

I thought the days of McCarthyism were long gone. I guess I was wrong. How quick some are to LABLE Obama and every liberal/progressive as a communist or a socialist. I'm willing to bet my last dollar that these people couldn't define socialism if their life depended on it. Banks and financial institutions failing everyday. Yet all they know is name calling because they are afraid. Just about every economist says that McCain's policies will wreck the economy even more. Please educate yourselves.
16
Anonymous
9/15/2008 1:08:11 AM CT

It is so funny how people forget that Obama is 1/2 white....if they are racists, tell them to vote for his white side!! I feel like he is the perfect combination of both!!!
Obama/Biden '08
17
wazzucoug
9/15/2008 1:15:19 AM CT

McCain/Palin-They represent a "Bridge to Nowhere."
18
lemonashes
9/15/2008 2:57:24 AM CT

"Let's not forget 'OUR' current president called us a "angry liberals." How dare he insult a huge segment of the population like that. I'm a proud liberal and turned it back into a + . I tell conservatives when they insult me "Liberal means GENEROUS and Conservative means LIMIT." They always reply "But I'm genoerous too!" To which I reply "So are you saying you're Liberal or limited?"
19
Seabird
9/15/2008 6:06:14 AM CT

The polls are very quetionable...I wonder when the polls are taken, if the persons responding are asked if they are Repub or Dem?
Just asking....
20
MyObama
9/15/2008 8:02:53 AM CT

We balck people will rule this country
21
krivka
9/15/2008 8:38:46 AM CT

Obama a socialist? You have to be joking. Dennis Kucinich would be the closest thing the Dems have to a socialist.
if you are referring to Obama's health care plan, and yes it is a realy plan, what he wants to do is to offer the citizens the same choices the Federal Employees have. All of the plans are offered by HMOs and other NON-GOVERNMENTAL entities. How exactly is that socialist? I am for single paying Government run health care because I know, that no matter how much government agencies are derided as inefficient, the taxpayer is getting a pretty good deal by having fairly well paid jobs open to people. What exactly do you oppose? People making a decent living? I have seen the outsourcing of government jobs to Dyn-Corp., and Lockheed-Martin with less service to the customer (veterans and survivors) with profits no going to a Corportation. There are no profits when the job is perfomed by a government agency. The purging of a qualified workforce and replacing them with $9.00 an hour ex-temp workers is a good deal to the taxpayers? There is never less spending, it only goes to a middleman. I wish Obama was a socialist.
22
TAN
9/15/2008 11:41:35 AM CT

Give me a beak with the race card....


Bluemonday
9/14/2008 4:32:37 PM CT

I truly beileve that the network news media is part of the spin in this election. It is up to us the regular people of America to seek the facts of what is out there about this race. I truly think that a part of this polling results truly reflect the fact that race in this race is a factor. But I hope that "We the people" will come to ther realization that we are at risk. Our own prejudices are so strong that we are willing to sacrifice our standing in the world view, we are willing to sacrifice our own personal financial recovery because a black man is trying to lead us. I can't believe that we would just allow our country to continue to spiral out of control. Money is green people and all of us need a strong economy to move forward. We can't fail people. We just can't.

Bluemonday and all you other Race Card Players.... Answer this question... If Justice Clarence Thomas were to step down from the Supreme Court and run for president, would you support him?

If you answer No, then you are a racist by your own standards.

If you answer Yes, then you are a racist by MY standards.
23
Dee
9/15/2008 12:57:43 PM CT

I do not trust the polls. Remember NC and Indiana primary's. They had Obama losing indy by 20 and a tie in NC. Only one Pllster got it right (Zoby , I think) NC obama 19 and Indy 1. So I would not trust these numbers.
24
blue/red
9/15/2008 2:23:46 PM CT

If we have another tail-wagging-the-dog result in November, where the middle states (red, ex-slavery/sitting on oil) elect McCain/Palin, will anyone start to talk about seceding from that Union? I find it unconscionable that the blue states, which represent the vast majority or progress, wealth, innovation etc, are being constantly "ruled" by the votes of the red states. This country is divided politically and geographically, and I think its time we cut the red states loose. The Blue states foot the bill for the red states, after all. Let them be their own country, and let the BLue states be their own country. I for one am sick of being "led" by a group of fools using social issues to divide us, so that they can enrich themselves through oil and legislation that benefits the owners of these large corporations. Anyone else feeling that its time that the states with the world-class research institutes, world-changing technologies, financial centers, etc etc let all these red states govern themselves? I'm sick of it, for one.
25
angry lefty
9/16/2008 1:39:19 PM CT

geez -- why does Obama get the socialist label when the Bush/McCain government has been giving welfare to the very people they worked to deregulate? Those our your tax dollars people! If Obama wants to start putting money into our economy to help middle class American's, what's wrong with that? It's exactly what we need after 8 years of blank checks for big oil and big corporations.
26
TAN
9/17/2008 6:13:29 PM CT

Maybe Obama was not trying to regulate them because they were his advisors...
Jim Johnson - who made 21 Million his last year at Fannie Mae

http://www.minnpost.com/stories/2008/06/03/2078/obama_turns_to_trusted_political_insider_jim_johnson_for_key_campaign_role

Franklin Delano Raines (born January 14, 1949 in Seattle, Washington) is the former chairman and chief executive officer of Fannie Mae who served as White House budget director under President Bill Clinton. He is currently employed by Barack Obama's Presidential Campaign as an economic adviser.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franklin_Raines


Maybe we can see who was working to keep these guys unregulated by looking at the money that they gave to our Congress.


Lehman Brothers gave 77% of their money to Democrats and 23% to Republicans. Here are the top 20.... Obama was 2nd in the last 20 years even though he was only there for 4 of the 20. MaCain was 7th on this list but he was there for the full 20 years.

Members of the 110th Congress who have received campaign contributions from Lehman Brothers, 1989-2008

Name Office State Party Grand Total

1 Clinton, Hillary S NY D $409,980
2 Obama, Barack S IL D $395,574
3 Schumer, Charles E S NY D $181,450
4 Dodd, Christopher J S CT D $165,800
5 Lieberman, Joe S CT I $165,450
6 Kerry, John S MA D $151,664
7 McCain, John S AZ R $145,100
8 Rangel, Charles B H NY D $38,650
9 Castle, Michael N H DE R $38,500
10 Lugar, Richard G S IN R $37,250
11 Reed, Jack S RI D $37,100
12 Lowey, Nita M H NY D $35,225
13 Lautenberg, Frank R S NJ D $34,100
14 Biden, Joseph R Jr S DE D $33,700
15 Feinstein, Dianne S CA D $32,100
16 Bayh, Evan S IN D $31,309
17 Emanuel, Rahm H IL D $30,350
18 Specter, Arlen S PA R $26,100
19 Baucus, Max S MT D $21,400
20 Boucher, Rick H VA D $20,000


Freddie and Fannie gave 58% of their money to Democrats and 42% to Republicans. Here are the top 20.... Again Obama was 2nd in the last 20 years even though he was only there for 4 of the 20. MaCain was 62nd on this list but he was there for the full 20 years.

All Recipients of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Campaign Contributions, 1989-2008

Name Office State Party Grand Total

1 Dodd, Christopher J S CT D $165,400
2 Obama, Barack S IL D $126,349
3 Kerry, John S MA D $111,000
4 Bennett, Robert F S UT R $107,999
5 Bachus, Spencer H AL R $103,300
6 Blunt, Roy H MO R $96,950
7 Kanjorski, Paul E H PA D $96,000
8 Bond, Christopher S 'Kit' S MO R $95,400
9 Shelby, Richard C S AL R $80,000
10 Reed, Jack S RI D $78,250
11 Reid, Harry S NV D $77,000
12 Clinton, Hillary S NY D $76,050
13 Davis, Tom H VA R $75,499
14 Boehner, John H OH R $67,750
15 Conrad, Kent S ND D $64,491
16 Reynolds, Tom H NY R $62,200
17 Johnson, Tim S SD D $61,000
18 Pelosi, Nancy H CA D $56,250
19 Carper, Tom S DE D $55,889
20 Hoyer, Steny H H MD D $55,500
20 Pryce, Deborah H OH R $55,500

62 McCain, John S AZ R $21,550

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