| Comments 
| Category: Methodology
| 4/10/2008 8:56:10 PM CT
The current algorithm for the Democratic Nomination gathers all relevant polling data for the given race within the last 8 days. If there is no data available within the last 8 days, the national race is substituted in place of the selected race. The results of this query are averaged and extrapolated out to 100%; this means that if the poll shows that Candidate A has 47% and Candidate B has 40% the new results will show Candidate A receiving (47%)/(47% + 40%) = 54.02 percent and Candidate B receiving (40%)/(47% + 40%) = 45.98%. Next the percentage of each candidate is multiplied by the number of delegates in each race and the result shows the projected number of delegates each candidate will receive for a given race.
The algorithm for the General Election (not yet implemented) is slightly different. The system again gathers all relevant poll data for the given state within the last 15 days, but if there is no data available the result of the 2004 election are used in its place. The percentages are calculated in the same manner as the Democratic Nomination. Once these percentages are calculated the candidate with the highest percentage gets all the electoral votes for that state.