An Obama Victory Minus Florida, Ohio

Taking a look at our recently added flip percentages shows John McCain with a secure grasp on Florida and Ohio, while Obama holds a virtual lock on the Kerry states. Under this assumption Obama would have 252 Electoral Votes, the same garnered by Kerry (Kerry technically received 251 due to a faithless elector in Minnesota) and 18 short of the required 270. There are however states still in play that could allow Obama to reach 270; Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia all have flip percentages over 30 and logically appear to be the most likely states to swing. By my count there are 16 permutations involving these seven states that would garner the 19 Electoral Votes needed. Below is a table with the 16 permutations and each permutations' associated probability. The percentages used for each state are provided by the flip percent on the electoral college estimates page as of August 12, 2008.

Permutation Electoral Votes Probability %
Indiana, Virginia 24 13.73
Indiana, Montana, Iowa 21 21.45
Indiana, New Mexico, Iowa 23 36.18
Indiana, Nevada, Iowa 23 26.16
Indiana, Montana, New Mexico 19 20.63
Indiana, Montana, Nevada 19 14.91
Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada 21 25.16
Virginia, Colorado 22 20.15
Virginia, Iowa 20 35.48
Virginia, Nevada, Montana 21 13.93
Virginia, New Mexico, Montana 21 19.27
Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada 23 23.50
Colorado, Iowa, Montana 19 31.50
Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico 21 53.13
Colorado, Iowa, Nevada 21 38.41
Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada 19 36.94
Obama Wins 1 of 16 Permutations 99.97

As you can see from the table, Obama has a 99.97 percent chance of reaching 270 if he wins all the Kerry states. This conclusion depicts John McCain in a bit of a hole requiring a win in either Michigan or New Hampshire to keep his presidential aspirations alive.

Update: Fixed the number of Electoral Votes Obama would receive if he were to win the Kerry states; as pointed out by a commenter. Kerry received 251 Electoral Votes, but based on the states he won he should have received 252. The one missing vote was cast for John Edwards in Minnesota by a faithless elector.

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3 Response(s) to An Obama Victory Minus Florida, Ohio

8/29/2008 12:18:52 AM CT

Kerry States = 252 EV.

251 was due to an elector submitting some weird gibberish when EV were cast (wording was something near "John Edwards").
9/7/2008 11:33:33 AM CT

I think this article needs to be redone. Obama has already passed that number. He has, of the Battleground States the following: NM, VA, PA, IA, MN, WS, MI. I think he will win CO. I am going to go out on a limb and say he has OH. This race is about the economy, the Dems strong suit, and all Obma has to do is remind the people there of McBush, and DHL. It should be his state.
Palin was brough on board too late, IMO. They have to somehow go out their and register 1,000's of Repubs to vote in only 4 weeks. They canot catch up.
Palin's paster has made anti-Semetic statemnts. If this is true, give FL to McCain, cause I would think Obama would make sure that Floridians knew this. I give McBush NV and MO. I think NH will go Blue this time. I will go out on a limb and say even Red MT will go Obama's way. he is really in great shape with te ECVs.
9/10/2008 2:48:35 AM CT

While today you can see a path to an Obama win based on the latest ECV numbers the trends on all the charts are going in the direction of McCain. Obama has to figure out a way to change this momentum. Hopefully the debates will work in his favor, but he can't wait for that, he has to get some momentum back.

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