Electoral Projections Using LOESS

By: TJHalva | Comments [2] | Category: Methodology | 7/31/2008 2:11:34 PM CT

I rolled out a brand new algorithm that uses local regression to generate a trendline corresponding to the states poll data; I created a PDF detailing the method. The algorithm uses a degree of 3, a bandwidth of 15, and a confidence interval of 95%. If a given state has less than 5 non-partisan polls a local least squares method is used. The results of the algorithm are presented on our graphs and in our electoral college estimates. If there are two or more polls with the same end date they are averaged and treated as a single poll.

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