MN-Senate: Precinct Audit Analysis

By: TJHalva | Comments [1] | Category: Senate | 11/16/2008 4:58:18 PM CT

On Friday November 14th, the Post Election Audit Review was carried out in 53 (1.297%) precincts across the state. The audit recounted 54,036 (1.872%) Senate votes statewide and included voter intent into some determinations.

Throughout the entire process 106 votes were corrected and Franken accumulated 2 additional votes. The table below depicts the results of this audit for each precinct in which it was conducted. The error rate measures the number of corrections relative to the total number of votes in each precinct. Votes for Dean Barkley and other Senate candidates were included in the math, but are not depicted due to space limitations.

County Precinct Total Changes Franken Net Gain Coleman Franken Total Error %
Anoka Coon Rapids W3 P-2 2 -2 874 811 2026 0.10%
Anoka Lino Lakes P-4 1 0 1177 548 2019 0.05%
Becker Detorit Lakes W3 P-1 1 1 770 475 1414 0.07%
Benton Minden TWP P2 0 0 2 2 4 0.00%
Benton Sauk Rapids P-3 1 0 749 502 1564 0.06%
Benton Sauk Rapids P-4 1 1 503 417 1154 0.09%
Brown Cottonwood TWP 1 1 200 149 478 0.21%
Carver Chaska W4 3 1 1426 790 2645 0.11%
Chippewa Clara City 1 0 304 232 683 0.15%
Chippewa Montevideo P-1 1 -1 432 519 1202 0.08%
Cottonwood Windom W-1 P-2 1 -1 320 281 707 0.14%
Dakota South St. Paul P4 W2 1 1 516 802 1608 0.06%
Fairbault Blue Earth W-2 1 1 314 212 636 0.16%
Hennepin Bloomington W1 P15 1 -1 606 546 1349 0.07%
Hennepin Maple Grove P-18 2 2 1074 438 1723 0.12%
Hennepin Minneapolis W7 P9 3 -1 304 876 1327 0.23%
Hennepin Minneapolis W9 P4 1 1 111 654 848 0.12%
Hennepin Plymouth W4 P22 2 -1 835 487 1517 0.13%
Hennepin Plymouth W4 P25 2 2 785 759 1853 0.11%
Itasca Greenway TWP P-3 1 -2 112 218 382 0.26%
Kanabec Ann Lake TWP 1 0 87 98 232 0.43%
Koochiching Scarlett Precinct 1 -1 31 28 65 1.54%
Lac Qui Parle Maxwell TWP 1 -1 39 36 93 1.08%
Lake of the Woods 5-A Unorg 1 1 157 114 324 0.31%
Marshall McCrea TWP 1 -1 87 37 146 0.68%
Mille Lacs South Harbor TWP 1 0 202 182 455 0.22%
Morrison Little Falls TWP 1 -1 483 296 936 0.11%
Otter Tail Dunn TWP 1 1 351 212 631 0.16%
Pipestone Jasper 2 0 100 109 234 0.85%
Polk Fosston City 1 1 363 276 733 0.14%
Ramsey Roseville P-2 4 -2 924 1110 2399 0.17%
Ramsey St. Paul W3 P5 2 -2 782 1060 2129 0.09%
Ramsey St. Paul W3 P13 1 1 447 1341 2023 0.05%
Ramsey St. Paul W6 P5 3 3 226 678 1055 0.28%
Redwood Redwood Falls W3 0 0 358 310 860 0.00%
Renville Franklin 1 -1 81 100 243 0.41%
Rock Beaver Creek TWP 2 -2 130 66 210 0.95%
St. Louis Babbit 28 -2 299 471 905 3.09%
St. Louis Eveleth P6 11 5 61 214 310 3.55%
Scott Prior Lake P5 2 1 1110 488 1824 0.11%
Scott Savage P-2 1 1 1031 870 2332 0.04%
Sherburne Clear Lake TWP 1 1 555 297 1079 0.09%
Sherburne Elk River W2 P2B 1 -2 961 464 1746 0.06%
Stearns Fair Haven TWP 2 0 354 236 830 0.24%
Steele Merton TWP 1 0 87 53 222 0.45%
Stevens Swan Lake TWP 2 2 95 36 149 1.34%
Swift Swenoda TWP 0 0 25 25 72 0.00%
Traverse Wheaton P2 1 1 151 165 403 0.25%
Waseca New Richland City 1 0 221 222 573 0.17%
Washington Cottage Grove P3 1 -2 651 790 1774 0.06%
Washington Cottage Grove P5 1 1 644 644 1539 0.06%
Winona Lewiston 1 -1 345 340 829 0.12%
Wright Buffalo P1 1 -1 744 509 1542 0.06%
Total   106 2 23596 21595 54036 Avg: 0.37%

Based upon the random sample, Norm Coleman won 33 (62.26%) precincts, while Franken won the other 20. This ratio slightly exaggerates support for Norm Coleman; using the complete sample of 4,130 precincts, Coleman wins just 60.46% of all statewide precincts. If the result from the audit sample is extrapolated out into the remaining precincts, where Franken accrues 2 votes for every 53 precincts, the Democratic challenger should pick up 156 votes through the recount process. If an adjusted ratio is used, which reflects the statewide precinct ratio, Franken gains approximately 5 votes in addition to the aforementioned 156.

Another item to consider is the high error rate in St. Louis County. St. Louis County is the largest county in Minnesota, and is located in the upper right portion of the state:

Minnesota Election Results By County

Using the information presented in the above image (click on the image for a more thorough explanation) St. Louis County may hold the key to a Franken comeback. Noting the results of the Audit, where Franken accrued 3 votes in just five (three are not depicted in the table because there was no change) precincts from St. Louis County, Franken could gain 120 votes if the aforementioned trend continues in all 232 precincts of St. Louis County.

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1 Response(s) to MN-Senate: Precinct Audit Analysis

1
mbw
11/17/2008 9:38:30 AM CT

Except for the two special precincts, the very low level of changes provides only a small random change, very unlikely to reach 200 statewide. The question is, where are the remaining anomalous precincts in which a significant number of unintentional undervote are hidden. Somebody has the precinct-level data on POTUS undervotes (less obscured by the large deliberate undervote down-ballot) which should show those few very distinct precincts with high percents. We could figure out quite well where this is heading by multiplying the anomalous POTU S undervotes by (F-C)/Total for those precincts. Attempts to do the same thing for all POTUS undervotes, not just the anomalous ones, predicted a gain of about 100 for F, but systematic errors from the deliberate POTUS undervotes made that estimate almost useless. The real number could be a lot higher or lower than 100. So who has the full precinct undervote data?

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