By:
TJHalva |
Comments [6] | Category:
VFA Original | 10/30/2008 4:00:01 PM CT
I've already discussed various electoral scenarios associated with the Bradley Effect, but I have yet to look at voter suppression. Using foreclosure data from 2007, the only data set I could find, a suppression model was devised.
It's quite simple, but gives a good result; I take the number of foreclosures in 2007 and divide that by the 2004 popular vote total in a given state. The result represents the percentage of eligible voters [based on 2004] under foreclosure. The table below illustrates the ten states with the greatest percentage of foreclosures relative to the 2004 turnout:
| Nevada (5) |
Weak Dem |
825,899 |
66,316 |
8.030 |
| California (55) |
Safe Dem |
12,419,857 |
481,392 |
3.876 |
| Florida (27) |
Core Dem |
7,609,810 |
279,325 |
3.671 |
| Arizona (10) |
Weak Rep |
2,012,585 |
69,970 |
3.477 |
| Colorado (9) |
Weak Dem |
2,130,330 |
71,149 |
3.340 |
| Georgia (15) |
Toss Up |
3,298,790 |
99,578 |
3.019 |
| Michigan (17) |
Safe Dem |
4,839,247 |
136,205 |
2.815 |
| Ohio (20) |
Core Dem |
5,627,903 |
153,196 |
2.722 |
| Indiana (11) |
Weak Rep |
2,468,002 |
52,930 |
2.145 |
| Texas (34) |
Safe Rep |
7,410,749 |
149,703 |
2.020 |
Using this foreclosure percentage allows us to model a potential source of voter suppression. If we assume that all people currently under foreclosure are voting for Obama, we can simulate what would happen if these voters were suddenly prevented from voting in their home state. I've taken the current projection for Obama and subtracted from that the foreclosure percentage in the given state. The result of this calculation projects the following electoral outcome:
Notice that Ohio, Nevada, Colorado and Indiana all shifted towards McCain, which is to be expected given that we subtracted from Obama, but the model serves to verify the affect voter suppression could have on this election. I should also mention that this "foreclosure effect" will be larger in theory than in practice due to the likely increase in voter turnout over the 2004 result.
While I was messing with the model I went ahead and ran the current Bradley Effect and Independent Slide scenarios. We'll start with the Bradley Effect model:
This week Obama gained 14 Electoral votes over last week's Bradley Effect model. Moving on to the Independent Slide model; if all currently undecided voters suddenly moved to McCain en masse:
Obama still wins, just like last week but this time he's added 77 Electoral Votes to his total. Its starting to look more and more like voter suppression is the only avenue by which McCain can win.
Update: A reader asked what would happen if the Bradley Effect model were to be combined with the suppression model. Here's the result:
Any other suggestions?
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A Voter Suppression Model
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