Poll Update (10/29): The Ad

A new poll by Arizona State University now shows Obama within the margin of error in Arizona. Based on this result, the rest of today's polls suddenly seem comparatively irrelevant:

RacePollsterEndDateDemRepOther
Alaska SenateRasmussen Reports10/28/200852444
Alaska (3)Rasmussen Reports10/28/200841572
Arizona (10)Arizona State University10/26/2008444610
Colorado (9)Time, CNN10/28/200853452
Colorado (9)Associated Press-GfK10/26/200850419
Florida (27)Time, CNN10/28/200851472
Florida (27)Quinnipiac University10/26/200847458
Georgia (15)Time, CNN10/28/200847521
Michigan (17)Rasmussen Reports10/28/200853434
Minnesota (10)Rasmussen Reports10/28/200855432
Minnesota SenateRasmussen Reports10/28/2008394318
Missouri (11)Time, CNN10/28/200848502
Nevada (5)Associated Press-GfK10/26/200852408
New Hampshire (4)Associated Press-GfK10/26/200855378
New Mexico (5)Rasmussen Reports10/28/200854442
North Carolina (15)Associated Press-GfK10/26/200848466
Ohio (20)Associated Press-GfK10/26/2008484111
Ohio (20)Quinnipiac University10/26/200851427
Ohio (20)Marist College10/26/200848457
Pennsylvania (21)Quinnipiac University10/26/200853416
Pennsylvania (21)Associated Press-GfK10/26/200852408
Pennsylvania (21)Marist College10/26/200855414
Pennsylvania (21)Franklin & Marshall College10/26/200853407
Virginia (13)Time, CNN10/28/200853443
Virginia (13)Associated Press-GfK10/26/200849429
Washington (11)SurveyUSA10/27/200856395
Washington (11)Strategic Vision (R)10/26/200854424

On other unrelated notes, Obama's 30 minute television ad was aired on seven different TV networks today at 7 PM CT. The ad was a mix of policy and story telling; of the personal stories that were highlighted, one came from Kentucky and another from Missouri. Obama is targeting two deeply red states six days before the election. Obama currently has a 33.66% chance of winning Missouri and a 2.63% chance in Kentucky. The Kentucky spot is likely an appeal to the Senate race while Missouri seems to be legitimately in play.

There was also a new Rasmussen Poll released from Alaska showing Sen. Stevens (R) in a significant amount of trouble; our model now gives Stevens a 99.03% chance of losing.

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