Obama's Senate Coattails

By: TJHalva | Comments [2] | Category: Senate | 10/24/2008 5:30:01 PM CT

I wrote an article on Tuesday that discussed the correlation between Obama's performance in Minnesota and that of his Senate counter part, Al Franken. While the article specifically focused on Minnesota, the method could be applied to any state. The table below illustrates, in the "Coefficient" column, how a given Democratic Senate candidate is polling relative to Obama. A result greater than 1 indicates an over performance by the Senate candidate relative to Obama, while a number below 1 implies the opposite. The bolded rows signify Senate races which our projection algorithm defines as Lean or Toss Up:

State (Flip %)     Coefficient  Obama %  Senate %  Incumbent
Rhode Island (0)       1.55      46.56    72.00     Democrat
Arkansas (0)           1.49      36.19    54.10     Democrat
South Dakota (0)       1.49      40.29    60.00     Democrat
West Virginia (0)      1.42      42.83    61.00     Democrat
Montana (0)            1.41      45.35    64.00     Democrat
Louisiana (2.72)       1.28      41.11    52.68     Democrat
Idaho (0)              1.20      24.90    30.00    Republican
Oklahoma (0.3)         1.20      33.34    39.89    Republican
Virginia (100)         1.17      50.12    58.61    Republican
Delaware (0)           1.14      56.07    64.00     Democrat
New Mexico (100)       1.12      50.24    56.21    Republican
Alaska (62.08)         1.11      41.91    46.60    Republican
Mississippi-B (35.72)  1.10      42.89    47.06    Republican
Michigan (0)           1.08      55.16    59.36     Democrat
Iowa (0)               1.07      53.31    57.16     Democrat
Kentucky (13.48)       1.06      42.19    44.80    Republican
Illinois (0)           1.04      59.72    62.00     Democrat
Massachusetts (0)      1.03      58.71    60.38     Democrat
New Hampshire (99.91)  1.02      50.20    51.29    Republican
Colorado (99.76)       0.98      50.95    50.00    Republican
South Carolina (0)     0.98      40.84    39.83    Republican
Nebraska (0)           0.96      36.84    35.50    Republican
Texas (0.19)           0.96      42.56    40.82    Republican
Georgia (34.13)        0.95      45.86    43.44    Republican
New Jersey (0)         0.92      58.71    54.29     Democrat
North Carolina (59.53) 0.92      47.94    43.94    Republican
Alabama (0)            0.90      35.80    32.26    Republican
Tennessee (0)          0.84      41.23    34.62    Republican
Kansas (0)             0.83      42.22    35.05    Republican
Wyoming-B (0)          0.82      36.36    29.90    Republican
Oregon (72.85)         0.78      49.90    38.97    Republican
Maine (0)              0.77      54.45    42.10    Republican
Mississippi-A (0)      0.75      42.89    32.00    Republican
Wyoming-A (0)          0.75      36.36    27.10    Republican
Minnesota (66.9)       0.73      54.38    39.96    Republican

You hopefully noticed that the most highly contested Senate races appear towards the bottom of the table. This finding is absolutely fascinating and requires some sort of explanation, but I'd rather hear your interpretation of the data. I'll post a detailed explanation later this weekend with additional analysis.

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2 Response(s) to Obama's Senate Coattails

1
Jimdotz
10/25/2008 3:04:38 AM CT

I'm not a political scientist, but I do teach community college Intro Statistics, and I have to say that your Coefficient is an interesting measure of The Coattail Effect. I have to wonder though, is it a useful, predictive tool? Can campaign decisions be made on it? Or is is merely an after-the-fact curiosity?
2
Dnalor
10/25/2008 12:01:43 PM CT

Is this is really an Obama Coattails effect or an anti-Bush association response? In the 2006 election we saw many Republican candidates lose in both State and National elections. Since that time Republicans have worked to distance themselves from Bush. Given the combination of the current economic times (when people vote based on their paycheck - or lack of paycheck) and the anti-Bush or Republican association, will we see only the strongest Republican candidates prevail?

The current tight race in NC for Dole (R) may be a good example of this combination effect. Most would argue that 3 months ago Dole would of been considered a lock for re-election. Her competitor Hagan (D) is in her 5 term in the state senate - which would make most assume she posses a fair amount of competency. But, only recently has Hagan made the race close. Is Dole doomed by a combination of party association and the challenge of a competent challenger even in a Red State?

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