Poll Update (10/21)

Today is done:

Colorado (9)InsiderAdvantage10/20/200851463
Florida (27)Public Policy Polling (D)10/19/200848475
Illinois (21)Chicago Tribune10/18/2008563212
Indiana (11)Public Policy Polling (D)10/19/200848466
Kentucky SenateSurveyUSA10/20/200848484
Kentucky (8)SurveyUSA10/20/200841545
Minnesota SenateStar Tribune10/17/2008393625
National (538)American Research Group10/20/200849456
National (538)NBC News, Wall Street Journal10/20/2008503911
National (538)Ipsos10/20/200850428
National (538)Pew Research Center10/19/200853398
Nevada (5)InsiderAdvantage, Politico10/19/200847476
New Jersey (15)Quinnipiac University10/19/200859365
New Jersey SenateQuinnipiac University10/19/2008553312
New Jersey (15)Monmouth University, Gannett10/18/200855387
North Carolina (15)Civitas Institute (R)10/20/200848457
North Carolina SenateCivitas Institute (R)10/20/2008444115
North Carolina (15)SurveyUSA10/20/200847476
North Carolina SenateSurveyUSA10/20/200846459
North Carolina (15)InsiderAdvantage, Politico10/19/200849483
Oklahoma SenateTVPoll.com10/20/200840537
Oklahoma (7)TVPoll.com10/20/200832644
Oklahoma SenateSurveyUSA10/19/2008395110
Oklahoma (7)SurveyUSA10/19/200835596
Pennsylvania (21)Morning Call Tracking10/20/200852426
South Carolina (8)Rasmussen Reports10/20/200843543
Tennessee SenateRasmussen Reports10/20/200834624
Vermont (3)Macro International10/12/2008512920
West Virginia (5)Rasmussen Reports10/20/200843525
Wyoming (3)SurveyUSA10/19/200837585
Wyoming (3)Mason-Dixon10/14/2008325810

If you were a McCain strategist in charge of campaign optimism, your line of attack today would be: "We have a solid lead in Kentucky, Oklahoma and Wyoming, that's all I have to report." If you're McCain's strategist in charge of realism, you probably didn't bother showing up at work today. Obama on the other hand has taken his first lead in a Public Policy Polling (D) poll of Indiana and has led or been tied in the last eleven polls taken in North Carolina.

If you're a Republican you've probably redirected your focus to the Senate. Although the Senate picture doesn't look much brighter for your favorite right winged party. A new poll by SurveyUSA shows the Kentucky Senate race as an absolute dead heat. Republicans can try and spin this all they want, but it ultimately comes down to the fact the Kentucky is one of the few states McCain absolutely does not have to worry about; and the fact that Mitch McConnell is the Republican Minority leader. The leader of the Republican Party in the Senate faces a potential defeat in one of the reddest states in the Union; talk about a poor brand. The Kentucky Senate graph is below:

The condition of Kentucky's Senate race is not an isolated issue, Republican Senators elsewhere are facing fierce competition. Today brought two new polls from such races; Civitas Institute (R) shows Democratic challenger Claire Hagan with a four point lead over Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina; and the Minnesota Star Tribune's Senate supplement was published late last night. The Minnesota Senate race has been contentious throughout and the Star Tribune poll makes no exceptions. Al Franken, the Democratic challenger to incumbent Republican Norm Coleman has a slim lead of three, down from nine in the previous conducted by the Star Tribune. If this seems like an oddity, it is, and I'll prove it later.

I'm working on a slick analysis of the Minnesota Senate race. I'm going to wait until after Rasmussen publishes today's polls because I'm terrified they'll pop out a Minnesota poll and force me to start over. Check back later tonight for the result.

These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • bodytext
  • del.icio.us
  • Furl
  • NewsVine
  • Reddit
  • SphereIt
  • Technorati
  • YahooMyWeb
  • Ma.gnolia
  • StumbleUpon
Your Ad Here

0 Response(s) to Poll Update (10/21)

Leave a Reply:

Name: (Defaults to Anonymous)
Type the characters you see in the image below:
(Word Verification)
Electoral College Projection Map
Senate Projection Map