Poll Update (9/24): Its a Tie

FOX News is reporting: "John McCain announced that he will suspend his presidential campaign on Thursday to return to Washington to help with Wall Street bailout negotiations....The Arizona senator also asked the Presidential Debate Commission to postpone Friday's scheduled debate." This will hopefully be the first and only time I ever cite FOX News. I think John has some ulterior motives with this announcement as evidenced by FOX News' eagerness to release the announcement. I plan on writing a full article on the issue later.

At least three more polls should be released, two by Rasmussen in Colorado and Alabama and one by CNN in New Hampshire. Those polls have now been added, here's where it stands:

RacePollsterEndDateObamaMcCainOther
Alabama (9)Rasmussen Reports9/22/200839601
Colorado (9)InsiderAdvantage9/23/200850419
Colorado (9)Time, CNN9/23/200849456
Colorado (9)Rasmussen Reports9/22/200850473
Florida (27)Strategic Vision (R)9/23/200845487
Hawaii (4)Rasmussen Reports9/23/200868275
Iowa (7)Marist College9/21/200851418
Kansas (6)SurveyUSA9/22/200841536
Michigan (17)Time, CNN9/23/200849438
Michigan (17)Market Research Group of Lansing9/20/2008434611
Montana (3)Time, CNN9/23/2008404911
National (538)FOX News, Opinion Dynamics9/23/2008453916
National (538)ABC News, Washington Post9/22/200852435
National (538)Ipsos9/22/2008444313
National (538)NBC News, Wall Street Journal9/22/200848466
Nevada (5)Project New West (D)9/19/200847458
New Hampshire (4)Rasmussen Reports9/23/200847494
New Hampshire (4)Marist College9/21/200851454
Pennsylvania (21)Time, CNN9/23/200851436
Pennsylvania (21)Strategic Vision (R)9/23/200847467
South Carolina (8)SurveyUSA9/22/200839583
Virginia (13)NBC News, Mason Dixon9/22/200844479
Washington (11)SurveyUSA9/22/200854433
West Virginia (5)Time, CNN9/23/200844497

Today brings the tie scenario I talked about yesterday. Obama has almost a 48% chance of obtaining at least a tie based on today's numbers. There was what appears to be a rogue poll released by Market Research Group of Lansing, I've never heard of this pollster and they released very little information about their poll. I' feel obligated to add it to the registry to quell partisan bickering. I should also note that this is the first poll since May 27th to show John McCain with any lead in Michigan. Washington and Colorado, yes Colorado are now dark blue and in the Safe Dem categorization based on our model. Washington seems like it should be there, but Colorado may have some fight left for McCain.

If you look at the map, three of the most crucial Senate races reside in either Toss Up or Lean states. Coleman (R*) vs Franken (D) in Minnesota, Dole (R*) vs Hagan (D) in North Carolina and Sununu (R*) vs. Shaheen (D) in New Hampshire. You have to wonder if these states stay competitive on both the presidential side and the senate side if that doesn't favor the Democrats who are polling about 3-6% better on generic ballots. I think many undecideds will pair their vote along party lines in these states using the information they know about one candidate to make a decision about the other. These senate races could very well decide the presidential election.

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