Poll Update (9/18)

By: TJHalva | Comments [0] | Category: Daily Update | 9/18/2008 12:00:39 AM CT

This actually happened today: Sarah Palin proposed an online service that would allow ordinary citizens access to federal budget information, but its already been done; by Barack Obama. This enormous gaffe is getting no air time. It reveals two things about the McCain campaign; Sarah Palin (or the campaign) is incapable of fact checking, and they have no idea what Obama's record actually encompasses.

Onto the polls, a slew new polls, yet so little time.

Race	Pollster	EndDate	Obama	McCain	Other
Colorado (9)	InsiderAdvantage	9/17/2008	51	41	8
Colorado (9)	Allstate, National Journal	9/15/2008	45	44	11
Connecticut (7)	Rasmussen Reports	9/16/2008	53	41	6
Florida (27)	SurveyUSA	9/17/2008	45	51	4
Florida (27)	Allstate, National Journal	9/15/2008	44	44	12
Florida (27)	American Research Group	9/15/2008	46	46	8
Georgia (15)	InsiderAdvantage	9/17/2008	43	51	6
Georgia (15)	Rasmussen Reports	9/16/2008	43	54	3
Georgia (15)	SurveyUSA	9/16/2008	41	57	2
Georgia (15)	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	9/11/2008	56	35	9
Illinois (21)	University of Wisconsin	9/17/2008	53	37	10
Indiana (11)	University of Wisconsin	9/17/2008	43	47	10
Indiana (11)	Selzer, Indianapolis Star	9/16/2008	47	44	9
Iowa (7)	University of Wisconsin	9/17/2008	45	45	10
Michigan (17)	University of Wisconsin	9/17/2008	48	44	8
Minnesota (10)	University of Wisconsin	9/17/2008	47	45	8
National (538)	Quinnipiac University	9/16/2008	49	45	6
National (538)	The Economist, YouGov (D)	9/16/2008	43	45	12
National (538)	Pew Research Center	9/14/2008	46	46	8
National (538)	The Economist, YouGov (D)	9/9/2008	41	40	19
Nebraska (5)	American Research Group	9/15/2008	34	60	6
New Hampshire (4)	American Research Group	9/15/2008	45	48	7
New Jersey (15)	Rasmussen Reports	9/16/2008	55	42	3
New Mexico (5)	Allstate, National Journal	9/15/2008	49	42	9
Ohio (20)	University of Wisconsin	9/17/2008	46	45	9
Ohio (20)	Allstate, National Journal	9/15/2008	41	42	17
Oregon (7)	Portland Tribune	9/14/2008	50	40	10
Pennsylvania (21)	University of Wisconsin	9/17/2008	45	45	10
South Carolina (8)	American Research Group	9/15/2008	37	59	4
Vermont (3)	Rasmussen Reports	9/13/2008	60	36	4
Virginia (13)	InsiderAdvantage	9/17/2008	46	48	6
Virginia (13)	Allstate, National Journal	9/15/2008	41	48	11
Wisconsin (10)	University of Wisconsin	9/17/2008	45	44	11

Our national projection now shows a very distinct convention ounce for McCain; unfortunately for him it seems to be over, at the same time Obama is surging.

Florida has shifted from a Toss Up to Weak Dem for the first time. Our model gives Obama a 84.3% chance of winning the state. A poll could come out in ten minutes and change that, but for now Florida appears to be Obama's. Turn's out that did happen. SurveyUSA released a new Florida poll, and pushed the state back into the Toss Up column.

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