Poll Update (9/18)

This actually happened today: Sarah Palin proposed an online service that would allow ordinary citizens access to federal budget information, but its already been done; by Barack Obama. This enormous gaffe is getting no air time. It reveals two things about the McCain campaign; Sarah Palin (or the campaign) is incapable of fact checking, and they have no idea what Obama's record actually encompasses.

Onto the polls, a slew new polls, yet so little time.

RacePollsterEndDateObamaMcCainOther
Colorado (9)InsiderAdvantage9/17/200851418
Colorado (9)Allstate, National Journal9/15/2008454411
Connecticut (7)Rasmussen Reports9/16/200853416
Florida (27)SurveyUSA9/17/200845514
Florida (27)Allstate, National Journal9/15/2008444412
Florida (27)American Research Group9/15/200846468
Georgia (15)InsiderAdvantage9/17/200843516
Georgia (15)Rasmussen Reports9/16/200843543
Georgia (15)SurveyUSA9/16/200841572
Georgia (15)Public Opinion Strategies (R)9/11/200856359
Illinois (21)University of Wisconsin9/17/2008533710
Indiana (11)University of Wisconsin9/17/2008434710
Indiana (11)Selzer, Indianapolis Star9/16/200847449
Iowa (7)University of Wisconsin9/17/2008454510
Michigan (17)University of Wisconsin9/17/200848448
Minnesota (10)University of Wisconsin9/17/200847458
National (538)Quinnipiac University9/16/200849456
National (538)The Economist, YouGov (D)9/16/2008434512
National (538)Pew Research Center9/14/200846468
National (538)The Economist, YouGov (D)9/9/2008414019
Nebraska (5)American Research Group9/15/200834606
New Hampshire (4)American Research Group9/15/200845487
New Jersey (15)Rasmussen Reports9/16/200855423
New Mexico (5)Allstate, National Journal9/15/200849429
Ohio (20)University of Wisconsin9/17/200846459
Ohio (20)Allstate, National Journal9/15/2008414217
Oregon (7)Portland Tribune9/14/2008504010
Pennsylvania (21)University of Wisconsin9/17/2008454510
South Carolina (8)American Research Group9/15/200837594
Vermont (3)Rasmussen Reports9/13/200860364
Virginia (13)InsiderAdvantage9/17/200846486
Virginia (13)Allstate, National Journal9/15/2008414811
Wisconsin (10)University of Wisconsin9/17/2008454411

Our national projection now shows a very distinct convention ounce for McCain; unfortunately for him it seems to be over, at the same time Obama is surging.

Florida has shifted from a Toss Up to Weak Dem for the first time. Our model gives Obama a 84.3% chance of winning the state. A poll could come out in ten minutes and change that, but for now Florida appears to be Obama's. Turn's out that did happen. SurveyUSA released a new Florida poll, and pushed the state back into the Toss Up column.

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