Poll Update (9/17)

ARG released twenty-five polls today. The new addition did not change our model's output, McCain is still projected to win with 274 Electoral Votes. Of the massive haul by ARG there were really only 4 polls of interest. The Montana poll shows Obama behind just two, which is a large contrast to some other polling done in the same time frame. Ohio is again in the McCain column, but this time by six. Colorado and Nevada are still both very close.

I later added five polls from CNN/Time and our projection changed to Obama 291, McCain 247. The CNN poll showed Obama ahead in both Florida and Ohio, which is good news for the Obama camp.

There was even another swath of polls after our first update; Rasmussen released a few battle ground states, then CBS followed with a new national poll showing Obama with a 5 point lead.

There's also news that a group of hackers (they shouldn't really be referred to as "hackers" because some of the information they obtained is legally public record) broke into Sarah Palin's semi-personal yahoo email accounts and did some snooping. They handed over their haul to WikiLeaks, who has released the information. Their page is getting pounded right now.

Based on the information I've been able to access it does in fact appear that Sarah Palin used these yahoo addresses (gov.palin@yahoo.com and gov.sarah@yahoo.com) for work related matters; there were messages sent to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, and another to her Chief of Staff. Mother Jones best sums up the situation: "Since then, the accounts have been deleted, which could be considered destruction of evidence if a court chose to pursue it." All we're left to wonder is what her password could have been; Ketchikan seems to be the front runner.

Alabama (9)American Research Group9/16/200836586
Alaska (3)American Research Group9/11/200836604
Arizona (10)American Research Group9/14/200839565
California (55)Field9/14/2008523612
Colorado (9)American Research Group9/13/2008444610
DC (3)American Research Group9/13/200882135
Delaware (3)American Research Group9/15/200851409
Florida (27)Time, CNN9/16/200848448
Hawaii (4)American Research Group9/12/200863325
Idaho (4)American Research Group9/10/200826686
Illinois (21)American Research Group9/16/200851454
Indiana (11)Time, CNN9/16/200843489
Kansas (6)American Research Group9/10/200831636
Kentucky (8)American Research Group9/12/200837576
Louisiana (9)American Research Group9/12/200843507
Maine (4)American Research Group9/10/200851418
Mississippi (6)American Research Group9/16/200839556
Missouri (11)American Research Group9/15/200845505
Montana (3)American Research Group9/9/200847494
National (538)CBS News, New York Times9/16/200849447
National (538)Ipsos9/15/2008454510
National (538)Reuters, Zogby9/13/200847458
Nevada (5)American Research Group9/14/200846495
New Mexico (5)SurveyUSA9/16/200852444
New Mexico (5)American Research Group9/16/200851445
New York (31)American Research Group9/16/200855387
North Carolina (15)Time, CNN9/16/200845469
North Carolina (15)American Research Group9/16/200841527
Ohio (20)Time, CNN9/16/2008464410
Ohio (20)American Research Group9/13/200844506
Oregon (7)Rasmussen Reports9/15/200851472
Rhode Island (4)American Research Group9/13/200859338
Rhode Island (4)Rasmussen Reports9/13/200858393
Texas (34)American Research Group9/16/200836577
Utah (5)American Research Group9/13/200829656
Vermont (3)Research 20009/14/200855369
Virginia (13)Christopher Newport University9/14/2008394813
Virginia (13)Public Policy Polling (D)9/14/200848466
West Virginia (5)American Research Group9/16/200845496
Wisconsin (10)Time, CNN9/16/200849456
Wisconsin (10)Rasmussen Reports9/13/200848466
Wyoming (3)American Research Group9/11/200828666

I finally got a DC poll. Up until now I had DC's values hard coded because there was no DC information, at all. The release today doesn't really change anything, because Obama's still up by like 70 instead of 80, but at least it makes my code cleaner.

A commenter pointed out that the CNN poll in Florida showed Obama and McCain tied at 48-48; this is true if you are looking at the one-on-one poll, but I've committed to using polls with third party candidates, if available. I'm watching Chris Mathews right now and he just showed the CNN poll in Florida tied at 48-48. A third party candidate changed the election in Florida in 2000 and the media isn't reporting a poll that includes third party candidates, it just doesn't make sense.

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11 Response(s) to Poll Update (9/17)

9/17/2008 10:53:46 AM CT

I'm all about DC. That shizzle should be a state. Let's get 2 more DEM Senators.
9/17/2008 2:11:55 PM CT

Let's include Canada: 8 more blue 'States' and 2 more red 'States' !

9/17/2008 2:19:58 PM CT

I don't think Canada wants to be included.
9/17/2008 3:46:59 PM CT

Stay tune for "As the Markets Turn"....
9/17/2008 4:03:19 PM CT

Colorado looks to be the key state.
9/17/2008 6:16:58 PM CT

Where's Iowa? That's got to to be a blue state.
9/17/2008 6:28:44 PM CT

Your florida poll is incorrect. I watcegd CNN amd they have both tied at 48. Does thi change anything?
9/17/2008 6:29:54 PM CT

That should read I watched CNN... sorry
9/17/2008 6:30:56 PM CT

I agree with algionfriddo... Colorado will decide this election...
Mamma Mae
9/18/2008 4:00:28 AM CT

I can't wait to vote. I'm a white female voting for Obama. But that leaves a question...how come there aren't any poll numbers for my state (GEORGIA)?
Mustard 844
9/18/2008 7:09:10 AM CT

You're projecting McCain to win, you're only one voter. Your polls are not counting the African American vote, and we have surged, registered and will vote to put Obama over the top.

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