Poll Update (9/16)

If you're not polling New Jersey, you're not cool, or something like that. There have been five new polls in the Garden State since September 7th, but none seem to alter the previous model. Take a look at the New Jersey graph below.

The trend lines were largely unaffected by these most recent polls; it does however appear that Obama lost a point and McCain gained one, but that can likely be traced to McCain's convention bounce. The important item to consider is the cost of putting New Jersey in play. New Jersey shares its media market with New York (which is the most expensive media market) and is not worth the investment for McCain, especially with just 84 million to work with. If he were serious about putting New York and New Jersey in play, recent polls suggest that he has at least an opportunity of winning, but his money could be more wisely spent in other states. Look for New Jersey to remain solidly in Obama's court come election day. There was a also New York poll released after the initial writing of this article. It reaffirms my position on New York; McCain has no chance.

Ohio has been extensively polled and essentially all results since the conventions have shown McCain with a three or four point lead. McCain may have the lead at the moment, but as the money game and the economy creep into the field of play I think McCain's lead in Ohio will dissipate a little. The state will remain very close until the fourth.

RacePollsterEndDateObamaMcCainOther
National (538)American Research Group9/15/200845487
National (538)George Washington University9/11/200844488
National (538)The Economist, YouGov9/9/2008404119
New Jersey (15)Monmouth University, Gannett9/14/2008494110
New Jersey (15)Quinnipiac University9/14/200848457
New York (31)Rasmussen Reports9/15/200855423
Ohio (20)Public Policy Polling (D)9/14/200844488

The national polls continue to do weird things and it appears that the tracking polls are starting to regress back toward a tie. Today McCain led in two trackers by one, and was down by four in the other two. It appears as though his national bounce has ended. The pressing question then becomes, can he hold the slimmest of leads for the next forty-nine days?

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9 Response(s) to Poll Update (9/16)

1
Anonymous
9/16/2008 2:46:23 PM CT

God, I hope not!
2
AreYouLyingToMe?
9/16/2008 4:45:46 PM CT

Number of GOP in American, according to your polls, 5,000,000,000,000,000.

Number of Democrats, according to your polls, 1.
3
Gottobekidding
9/16/2008 8:47:43 PM CT

If people in Ohio and Pa vote for McCain then they deserve more job losses and need to stop whining. They did it to themselves for being so stupid.
4
hmmmmmer
9/16/2008 8:57:53 PM CT

Gottobekidding, no kidding!
5
PAposter
9/16/2008 8:59:47 PM CT

Gottobekidding

I agree with you about Ohio and PA. It is insane that people continue to vote against their interests, and then wonder why they struggle so much. Good God!
6
hmmmmmer
9/16/2008 9:00:05 PM CT

Gottobekidding, no kidding!
7
westernskies
9/16/2008 10:04:15 PM CT

OH and PA have this little issue called "I can't trust a black" that always gets in their way. I say this from personal experience being married to a Dayton boy so have family in-laws there. Talk about a group of people who are totally stuck ... especially the older ones who have finally decided that things are a lot worse than they wanted to believe. Interestingly, when it finally hits them personally the old light bulb FINALLY went on.
8
aa andmad
9/16/2008 11:14:53 PM CT

Well I would love to say i am shocked by the black guy remark but as the old saying goes live by the sword die by it ,
9
Anonymous
9/17/2008 2:16:28 AM CT

very cogent analysis. colorado is the tipping point state. this analysis is consistent with five thirty eight and princeton election consortium: my prediction, 274 mccain 264 obama. does free-determinism exist?

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