By:
TJHalva |
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Daily Update | 9/16/2008 2:44:28 PM CT
If you're not polling New Jersey, you're not cool, or something like that. There have been five new polls in the Garden State since September 7th, but none seem to alter the previous model. Take a look at the New Jersey graph below.
The trend lines were largely unaffected by these most recent polls; it does however appear that Obama lost a point and McCain gained one, but that can likely be traced to McCain's convention bounce. The important item to consider is the cost of putting New Jersey in play. New Jersey shares its media market with New York (which is the most expensive media market) and is not worth the investment for McCain, especially with just 84 million to work with. If he were serious about putting New York and New Jersey in play, recent polls suggest that he has at least an opportunity of winning, but his money could be more wisely spent in other states. Look for New Jersey to remain solidly in Obama's court come election day. There was a also New York poll released after the initial writing of this article. It reaffirms my position on New York; McCain has no chance.
Ohio has been extensively polled and essentially all results since the conventions have shown McCain with a three or four point lead. McCain may have the lead at the moment, but as the money game and the economy creep into the field of play I think McCain's lead in Ohio will dissipate a little. The state will remain very close until the fourth.
The national polls continue to do weird things and it appears that the tracking polls are starting to regress back toward a tie. Today McCain led in two trackers by one, and was down by four in the other two. It appears as though his national bounce has ended. The pressing question then becomes, can he hold the slimmest of leads for the next forty-nine days?
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Poll Update (9/16)
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