Poll Update (9/12)

To contrast with yesterday's large haul it appears many pollsters took the day off. There is nothing too eventful in today's numbers but there are some interesting trends that are emerging. The University of Cincinnati polled Ohio with what appears to be a fairly accurate sample; the results still suggest that Ohio could go either way. Rasmussen decided to do a useful poll today, after doing Wyoming and Idaho yesterday, in Missouri and Washington. The Missouri results show that Obama is steadily gaining ground and could very well force John McCain to throw some of his 84 million at the show me state.

RacePollsterEndDateObamaMcCainOther
Missouri (11)Rasmussen Reports9/11/200846513
National (538)Newsweek9/11/200846468
National (538)Associated Press-GfK9/10/200844488
National (538)Ipsos9/9/200845469
New Jersey (15)Marist9/8/200848457
Ohio (20)University of Cincinnati9/10/200844488
Oklahoma (7)Rasmussen Reports9/11/200832635
Oregon (7)Hoffman Research Group9/9/2008463915
Washington (11)Rasmussen Reports9/10/200849474

The Washington result is by far the most perplexing poll released today and perhaps confirms the trend established by SurveyUSA's most recent Washington result. The sample seems legitimate, nothing stands out as overtly improbable. Kerry won Washington by 7.18% in 2004 but our model seems to be predicting a much closer race. I just don't see the race being close in Washington; Seattle will carry the state regardless of what the GOP might seek to achieve.

The national polls are still showing a lot of volatility. Some give the edge to Obama, others McCain but the spread seems to be equally proportioned. The variation is most certainly caused by the wide sample space of the nation and interference caused by the recent conventions. I've never given much weight to national polls because it simply has no bearing on the electoral college; they are simply useful for demographic information, but even then their usefulness is debatable. Perhaps in a few days the national polls will fall back into a more reliable trend; only to be disturbed by the upcoming debates.

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2 Response(s) to Poll Update (9/12)

1
Anonymous
9/13/2008 6:04:56 AM CT

its time to check Kansas again...it isn't as red as it seems in a month old survey.
2
Bridget McCurry
9/14/2008 1:04:47 PM CT

They have yet to call me, I'm in NC. We are registering over 1400 new Dems a day. I alone reg ten yesterday afternoon. NC will be BLUE!

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