Poll Update (9/11)

I was finally motivated (by the sheer number of new polls today) to patch together a mechanism to list all the polls added to the database on a given day. The table is color coded to reflect the result of each poll; the colors are segmented by three points. You might have noticed that some pollsters have an (R) or a (D) after them, this simply means that the pollster has a partisan affiliation and serves as a marker to eliminate them from the final electoral calculation. Today's polls are listed below:

RacePollsterEndDateObamaMcCainOther
Alabama (9)AEA, Capital Survey9/9/2008355510
Colorado (9)InsiderAdvantage9/10/200849465
Colorado (9)Public Policy Polling (D)9/9/200847467
Florida (27)InsiderAdvantage9/10/200842508
Florida (27)Quinnipiac University9/9/200843507
Georgia (15)InsiderAdvantage9/10/200838566
Georgia (15)Strategic Vision (R)9/9/200839529
Idaho (4)Rasmussen Reports9/9/200829683
Maine (4)Research 2000, DailyKos.com (D)9/10/2008523810
Michigan (17)InsiderAdvantage9/10/2008444511
Michigan (17)Rasmussen Reports9/10/200851463
Mississippi (6)Research 2000, DailyKos.com (D)9/10/200837558
National (538)Democracy Corps (D)9/10/200846486
National (538)InsiderAdvantage9/8/200846468
National (538)Public Opinion Strategies (R)9/8/2008434611
Nevada (5)InsiderAdvantage9/10/200845469
North Carolina (15)Civitas Institute (R)9/10/200844479
North Carolina (15)Research 2000, DailyKos.com (D)9/10/200838557
North Carolina (15)Garin Hart Yang (D)9/7/200846495
Ohio (20)InsiderAdvantage9/10/200847485
Ohio (20)Quinnipiac University9/9/200849447
Ohio (20)Strategic Vision (R)9/7/200844488
Pennsylvania (21)Quinnipiac University9/9/200848457
West Virginia (5)Mark Blankenship Enterprises9/8/2008394417
Wyoming (3)Rasmussen Reports9/10/200839583

There was a lot of irrelevance today (Idaho, Wyoming, Maine) but also some interesting results. The swing states were well represented and uniformly showed that Obama has retaken his pre-convention lead. InsiderAdvantage released five new polls today, three favored Obama, one McCain and the National poll was a tie. I took a look at the cross tabs on each of these polls and it appears that InsiderAdvantage may be underestimating Obama's support among African Americans; the numbers actually represented a drop in AA support from the results Kerry posted in 2004. I highly doubt this phenomenon will occur in November based on AA turn out in the caucuses and the fact that Obama is the first African American presidential nominee. The rest of the non-partisan polls seemed to accurately represent the electorate.

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1 Response(s) to Poll Update (9/11)

1
Dee
9/11/2008 10:43:53 PM CT

Good Job. Please keep updating

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