Poll Update (10/12)

Numerous polls from this week, and a few last releases from last:

2009 New Jersey GovernorNeighborhood Research (R)10/8/2009353629
2009 New Jersey GovernorDemocracy Corps (D)10/7/2009413821
2009 New Jersey GovernorSurveyUSA10/7/2009404317
2009 New Jersey GovernorNJ Assoc of State Colleges & Univ.10/5/2009384319
2009 New Jersey GovernorRasmussen Reports10/5/200944479
2009 New Jersey GovernorFairleigh Dickinson10/5/2009383725
2009 New Jersey GovernorResearch 2000, DailyKos (D)9/30/2009424612
2009 Virginia GovernorRichmond Times, Mason Dixon10/8/2009404812
2009 Virginia GovernorWashington Post10/7/200944533
2009 Virginia GovernorSurveyUSA10/4/200943543

Nothing fundamentally changed; Corzine (D) still modestly trails while, Deeds (D) remains further behind:

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Election

I first want to talk about the upcoming debate in Virginia. The debate started at 8 PM ET today, and is sponsored by the League of Women Voters and AARP. If you live in the Virginia viewing area, the debate should be broadcast on the NBC affiliate.

This is a big stage for Deeds; he needs to directly address the issue of taxing as it relates to his transportation plan. He stumbled last debate and it appears to have hurt him in the polls. He must clarify his position if he still hopes to emerge victorious in just three short weeks.

Moving North up the Atlantic Coast, the Lieutenant Gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey debated last Thursday. NJ.com has a brisk recap if you're interested. The discussion was apparently very heated and at times focused on Christie's (R) heavy set physique. I don't think this debate matters in any way shape or form. It's an off year election where most of the voting population probably hasn't tuned into the top of the ticket debates, to think that the Lieutenant Governor's debate affects public opinion is probably a step too far.

Then on Saturday, the New Jersey Star-Ledger endorsed their candidate:

The Star-Ledger today endorses independent candidate Chris Daggett and recommends his election as the next governor of New Jersey.

The newspaper's decision is less a rejection of Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie than a repudiation of the parties they represent, both of which have forfeited any claim to the trust and confidence of the people of New Jersey. They share responsibility for the state's current plight.

Source: Star-Ledger Editorial Board at NJ.com

This is excellent news for Corzine, perhaps better than had he himself been endorsed. Dagget (I) appears to be drawing a fair amount of support away from Christie, while Corzine's baseline has remained steady. Dagget's (I) support seems to have consolidated after his esteemed debate performance on the first of the month. The next NJ debate takes place this Friday, October 16th. The three leading candidates will again take the stage, but this time at William Patterson University. The debate will be broadcast on TV and online through the NJ Network (PBS).

I'll try and update the graphs to reflect Dagget's numbers but I'm not making any promises. More in a week.

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