MN Senate Recount Consolidation

There were no new recount results yesterday, so I took the opportunity today, to provide an overview of where the recount currently stands. The images below serve to illustrate the current state of the recount, with respect to the originally certified result. The first image below draws from the official SOS recount result as of 8 PM CT last night.

Minnesota Recount Results by County Map

A complete description of the colorization process for the above image is available for those who are curious.

The following image shows the result of the certified result as of November 18th.

Minnesota Election Results by County Map

A detailed description of the colorization process is also available for the above image. Both maps are embeddable.

The next series of graphs illustrates the current state of the race in each county alphabetically. There are several counties that have yet to begin the recount process; these counties are all depicted on the last graph in the series. For counties with recount data, the certified result, the current recount result, and the number of challenges by Coleman and Franken are depicted. The vote totals use the left y-axis, while the challenge totals use the right. Also be aware of the inconsistency of the scaling between each graph; if the scale is normalized the data is uninterpretable in most counties.

Minnesota Recount Results by County Map

I talked yesterday about the correlation between challenges and the current vote totals in a given precinct. I concluded that both candidates seem to be challenging more votes in precincts where they are currently leading. The maps and graphs above seem to reaffirm this assertion with one notable exception; Hennepin County.

Franken won Hennepin County based on the certified result, is currently leading and will eventually win the county; but Norm Coleman has challenged 23 more ballots than Al Franken in the County containing Minneapolis. Hennepin County has the largest population of any county in Minnesota and contains at least 6,000 residual votes. It is very likely that both candidates are challenging votes for Al Franken; as these residual votes tend to lean towards the Democratic candidate.

I think its very possible for Franken to make up votes when the Hennepin challenges are finally reviewed. Franken may still have ground to gain in Ramsey County too, judging by their anemic progress, of just less than 50%. Ramsey County has a similar residual vote pattern and it's very possible that the same trend occurring in Hennepin could also be observed in Ramsey County as the remaining ballots are recounted.

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