MN-Sen: Undervote Redux

In my previous article on undervotes, which you should probably read before continuing, I looked at the undervote totals in the 87 counties of Minnesota. While counties provide a fair level of resolution, the precinct data could provide an additional level of detail. This time around I used the precinct data, from the MN Secretary of State's Office, for both the Senate and Presidential elections. The resulting calculation was performed identically to the method described in the aforementioned article, just with additional data.

The precinct calculation yielded 17,831 undervotes in precincts won by Obama, while the county result ranged roughly 500 votes higher at 18,328. This deviation initially appears worrisome, for Franken, but the final tally shows a staggering drop off in the number of undervotes necessary for a Franken victory. An undervote total of just 3,280 votes, evenly distributed across each precinct and inline with the current trend, delivers Franken the votes necessary to overcome his 206 vote deficit. These 3,280 votes represent just 13.2% of all potential undervotes, as identified in the preceding article.

Given this result, I have no idea if 13.2% exists in the realm of likelihood, but its better news, for Franken, than our previously determined 40% threshold. Tomorrow (or the next day) I plan on exploring the historical correlation between overvotes, undervotes, and the Presidential to Senate ratio; I'll report back with my findings.

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