Poll Update (11/3): Late Night Edition

Public Policy Polling (D) and Reuters/Zogby decided that they needed to release their latest numbers at around midnight; and I was all over it. There was also a late straggler in Minnesota by SurveyUSA/KSTP that slipped through the crack earlier in the day.

Here's our late night edition:

RacePollsterEndDateDemRepOther
Florida (27)Reuters, Zogby11/2/200847.546.26
Indiana (11)Reuters, Zogby11/2/200843.949.17
Minnesota (10)SurveyUSA11/1/200849465
Minnesota SenateSurveyUSA11/1/2008394417
Missouri (11)Reuters, Zogby11/2/200847.445.77
National (538)NBC News, Wall Street Journal11/2/200851436
Nevada (5)Reuters, Zogby11/2/200850.742.96
North Carolina (15)Reuters, Zogby11/2/200849.347.73
North Carolina SenatePublic Policy Polling (D)11/2/200851445
North Carolina (15)Public Policy Polling (D)11/2/200850491
Ohio (20)Reuters, Zogby11/2/200850.243.96
Ohio (20)Public Policy Polling (D)11/2/200850482
Pennsylvania (21)Reuters, Zogby11/2/200853.7406
Virginia (13)Reuters, Zogby11/2/200850.744.64

Of the fourteen polls included in the roundup, the Republican party leads in just two; Indiana and the Minnesota Senate race. The results of any SurveyUSA poll taken in Minnesota have been suspect throughout the election cycle and this result is no different. Based on the cross tabs Barack Obama is garnering 50% of his support from voters over 50 and just 49% from voters aged 18-50. Can you say Halloween sample skew?

In fact SurveyUSA's results have been consistently awkward; to prove this I highlighted (with gray circles) SurveyUSA's polls on our Minnesota Senate graph below:

Tough Break KSTP

You'll notice that every single SurveyUSA poll result for Norm Coleman lies outside of our upper 95% confidence band with the exception of their latest result, but even then its an endpoint The Local Regression algorithm we use always fits the most recent data point within the specified confidence level, so this really isn't an exception, but rather a technicality. That said, I may be able to choose another pollster to illustrate a similar bias towards Franken.

The bottom line is that the Minnesota Senate race remains extremely tight and any additional polling is unlikely to sharpen the direction of this race.

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