Poll Update (11/1)

This is pretty much all you need to know:

Indiana Projection Graph

Yes, Obama is now winning Indiana; by .02%. While this is likely insignificant, the election could very well be over when the first phase of polls in Indiana close at 5 PM CT; and the exit polls are revealed. If Obama's within 5% or so, the Evansville and Gary regions may very well push him over the edge when their polling closes an hour later. But even if Obama does not in fact win Indiana, the result should be very telling of where the election is headed.

Just eleven pro-Republican polls today, definitely not a good sign for the GOP. Here were today's polls:

RacePollsterEndDateDemRepOther
Arkansas (6)American Research Group10/31/200844515
California (55)SurveyUSA10/31/200860364
Florida (27)American Research Group10/31/200850464
Florida (27)Datamar Inc10/30/200847476
Florida (27)Mason-Dixon10/30/200849474
Indiana (11)American Research Group10/31/200848484
Iowa (7)Research 2000, KCCI10/29/200853398
Kentucky (8)Mason-Dixon, Courier-Journal10/29/200842517
Kentucky (8)Research 2000, DailyKos (D)10/29/200839565
Kentucky SenateResearch 2000, DailyKos (D)10/29/200844479
Minnesota (10)Research 2000, DailyKos (D)10/29/200853389
Minnesota SenateResearch 2000, DailyKos (D)10/29/2008404317
National (538)CBS News10/31/200854415
National (538)Harris Interactive (D)10/27/200850446
National (538)Associated Press, Yahoo10/27/200850437
New Hampshire SenateWMUR, UNH Tracking10/26/2008493813
New Hampshire SenateWMUR, UNH Tracking10/22/2008493615
New Jersey (15)Monmouth University, Gannett10/31/2008553411
New Jersey SenateMonmouth University, Gannett10/31/2008503119
North Carolina SenateElon University10/30/2008443719
North Carolina (15)Elon University10/30/2008453817
Ohio (20)Ohio Newspaper Poll10/23/200857412
Oregon (7)Rasmussen Reports10/30/200854424
Oregon (7)Research 2000, DailyKos (D)10/29/200855396
Oregon SenateResearch 2000, DailyKos (D)10/29/2008484210
Oregon (7)Moore Information (R)10/28/2008513712
Oregon SenateMoore Information (R)10/28/2008414514
Oregon SenatePortland Tribune, Fox 1210/25/2008454015
Oregon (7)Portland Tribune, Fox 1210/25/2008533413
Pennsylvania (21)American Research Group10/31/200851454
Pennsylvania (21)Morning Call Tracking10/30/200853434
Pennsylvania (21)Rasmussen Reports10/30/200851472
South Dakota (3)Rasmussen Reports10/30/200844533
Utah (5)Dan Jones, Deseret News10/30/2008325711
Virginia SenateMason-Dixon10/30/200862317
Washington (11)University of Washington10/31/2008513910
Wisconsin (10)University of Wisconsin10/29/200852426
Wyoming (3)Research 2000, DailyKos (D)10/29/200836613
Wyoming-A SenateResearch 2000, DailyKos (D)10/29/200835623
Wyoming-B SenateResearch 2000, DailyKos (D)10/29/200835605

If the Dems want to reach 60, there are really only three viable options; they must win two of the following: Kentucky (4.58%), Minnesota (20.4%) and Georgia (7.72). Georgia law requires a runoff election if the winner recieves less than 50% of the vote; this could legitimately happen, but more on this possibility Monday afternoon. If the Democrats are serious about reaching 60, which I assume they are, it would be a wise move to pseudo concede Georgia, and then later fight in the runoff. What an epic battle that could be.

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1 Response(s) to Poll Update (11/1)

1
lillian
11/2/2008 11:46:27 AM CT

yes

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