Poll Update (11/1)

By: TJHalva | Comments [1] | Category: Daily Update | 11/1/2008 8:08:26 PM CT

This is pretty much all you need to know:

Yes, Obama is now winning Indiana; by .02%. While this is likely insignificant, the election could very well be over when the first phase of polls in Indiana close at 5 PM CT; and the exit polls are revealed. If Obama's within 5% or so, the Evansville and Gary regions may very well push him over the edge when their polling closes an hour later. But even if Obama does not in fact win Indiana, the result should be very telling of where the election is headed.

Just eleven pro-Republican polls today, definitely not a good sign for the GOP. Here were today's polls:

Race	Pollster	EndDate	Dem	Rep	Other
Arkansas (6)	American Research Group	10/31/2008	44	51	5
California (55)	SurveyUSA	10/31/2008	60	36	4
Florida (27)	American Research Group	10/31/2008	50	46	4
Florida (27)	Datamar Inc	10/30/2008	47	47	6
Florida (27)	Mason-Dixon	10/30/2008	49	47	4
Indiana (11)	American Research Group	10/31/2008	48	48	4
Iowa (7)	Research 2000, KCCI	10/29/2008	53	39	8
Kentucky (8)	Mason-Dixon, Courier-Journal	10/29/2008	42	51	7
Kentucky (8)	Research 2000, DailyKos (D)	10/29/2008	39	56	5
Kentucky Senate	Research 2000, DailyKos (D)	10/29/2008	44	47	9
Minnesota (10)	Research 2000, DailyKos (D)	10/29/2008	53	38	9
Minnesota Senate	Research 2000, DailyKos (D)	10/29/2008	40	43	17
National (538)	CBS News	10/31/2008	54	41	5
National (538)	Harris Interactive (D)	10/27/2008	50	44	6
National (538)	Associated Press, Yahoo	10/27/2008	50	43	7
New Hampshire Senate	WMUR, UNH Tracking	10/26/2008	49	38	13
New Hampshire Senate	WMUR, UNH Tracking	10/22/2008	49	36	15
New Jersey (15)	Monmouth University, Gannett	10/31/2008	55	34	11
New Jersey Senate	Monmouth University, Gannett	10/31/2008	50	31	19
North Carolina Senate	Elon University	10/30/2008	44	37	19
North Carolina (15)	Elon University	10/30/2008	45	38	17
Ohio (20)	Ohio Newspaper Poll	10/23/2008	57	41	2
Oregon (7)	Rasmussen Reports	10/30/2008	54	42	4
Oregon (7)	Research 2000, DailyKos (D)	10/29/2008	55	39	6
Oregon Senate	Research 2000, DailyKos (D)	10/29/2008	48	42	10
Oregon (7)	Moore Information (R)	10/28/2008	51	37	12
Oregon Senate	Moore Information (R)	10/28/2008	41	45	14
Oregon Senate	Portland Tribune, Fox 12	10/25/2008	45	40	15
Oregon (7)	Portland Tribune, Fox 12	10/25/2008	53	34	13
Pennsylvania (21)	American Research Group	10/31/2008	51	45	4
Pennsylvania (21)	Morning Call Tracking	10/30/2008	53	43	4
Pennsylvania (21)	Rasmussen Reports	10/30/2008	51	47	2
South Dakota (3)	Rasmussen Reports	10/30/2008	44	53	3
Utah (5)	Dan Jones, Deseret News	10/30/2008	32	57	11
Virginia Senate	Mason-Dixon	10/30/2008	62	31	7
Washington (11)	University of Washington	10/31/2008	51	39	10
Wisconsin (10)	University of Wisconsin	10/29/2008	52	42	6
Wyoming (3)	Research 2000, DailyKos (D)	10/29/2008	36	61	3
Wyoming-A Senate	Research 2000, DailyKos (D)	10/29/2008	35	62	3
Wyoming-B Senate	Research 2000, DailyKos (D)	10/29/2008	35	60	5

If the Dems want to reach 60, there are really only three viable options; they must win two of the following: Kentucky (4.58%), Minnesota (20.4%) and Georgia (7.72). Georgia law requires a runoff election if the winner recieves less than 50% of the vote; this could legitimately happen, but more on this possibility Monday afternoon. If the Democrats are serious about reaching 60, which I assume they are, it would be a wise move to pseudo concede Georgia, and then later fight in the runoff. What an epic battle that could be.

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