By:
TJHalva |
Comments [1] | Category:
Daily Update | 11/1/2008 8:08:26 PM CT
This is pretty much all you need to know:
Yes, Obama is now winning Indiana; by .02%. While this is likely insignificant, the election could very well be over when the first phase of polls in Indiana close at 5 PM CT; and the exit polls are revealed. If Obama's within 5% or so, the Evansville and Gary regions may very well push him over the edge when their polling closes an hour later. But even if Obama does not in fact win Indiana, the result should be very telling of where the election is headed.
Just eleven pro-Republican polls today, definitely not a good sign for the GOP. Here were today's polls:
Arkansas (6) | American Research Group | 10/31/2008 | 44 | 51 | 5 |
California (55) | SurveyUSA | 10/31/2008 | 60 | 36 | 4 |
Florida (27) | American Research Group | 10/31/2008 | 50 | 46 | 4 |
Florida (27) | Datamar Inc | 10/30/2008 | 47 | 47 | 6 |
Florida (27) | Mason-Dixon | 10/30/2008 | 49 | 47 | 4 |
Indiana (11) | American Research Group | 10/31/2008 | 48 | 48 | 4 |
Iowa (7) | Research 2000, KCCI | 10/29/2008 | 53 | 39 | 8 |
Kentucky (8) | Mason-Dixon, Courier-Journal | 10/29/2008 | 42 | 51 | 7 |
Kentucky (8) | Research 2000, DailyKos (D) | 10/29/2008 | 39 | 56 | 5 |
Kentucky Senate | Research 2000, DailyKos (D) | 10/29/2008 | 44 | 47 | 9 |
Minnesota (10) | Research 2000, DailyKos (D) | 10/29/2008 | 53 | 38 | 9 |
Minnesota Senate | Research 2000, DailyKos (D) | 10/29/2008 | 40 | 43 | 17 |
National (538) | CBS News | 10/31/2008 | 54 | 41 | 5 |
National (538) | Harris Interactive (D) | 10/27/2008 | 50 | 44 | 6 |
National (538) | Associated Press, Yahoo | 10/27/2008 | 50 | 43 | 7 |
New Hampshire Senate | WMUR, UNH Tracking | 10/26/2008 | 49 | 38 | 13 |
New Hampshire Senate | WMUR, UNH Tracking | 10/22/2008 | 49 | 36 | 15 |
New Jersey (15) | Monmouth University, Gannett | 10/31/2008 | 55 | 34 | 11 |
New Jersey Senate | Monmouth University, Gannett | 10/31/2008 | 50 | 31 | 19 |
North Carolina Senate | Elon University | 10/30/2008 | 44 | 37 | 19 |
North Carolina (15) | Elon University | 10/30/2008 | 45 | 38 | 17 |
Ohio (20) | Ohio Newspaper Poll | 10/23/2008 | 57 | 41 | 2 |
Oregon (7) | Rasmussen Reports | 10/30/2008 | 54 | 42 | 4 |
Oregon (7) | Research 2000, DailyKos (D) | 10/29/2008 | 55 | 39 | 6 |
Oregon Senate | Research 2000, DailyKos (D) | 10/29/2008 | 48 | 42 | 10 |
Oregon (7) | Moore Information (R) | 10/28/2008 | 51 | 37 | 12 |
Oregon Senate | Moore Information (R) | 10/28/2008 | 41 | 45 | 14 |
Oregon Senate | Portland Tribune, Fox 12 | 10/25/2008 | 45 | 40 | 15 |
Oregon (7) | Portland Tribune, Fox 12 | 10/25/2008 | 53 | 34 | 13 |
Pennsylvania (21) | American Research Group | 10/31/2008 | 51 | 45 | 4 |
Pennsylvania (21) | Morning Call Tracking | 10/30/2008 | 53 | 43 | 4 |
Pennsylvania (21) | Rasmussen Reports | 10/30/2008 | 51 | 47 | 2 |
South Dakota (3) | Rasmussen Reports | 10/30/2008 | 44 | 53 | 3 |
Utah (5) | Dan Jones, Deseret News | 10/30/2008 | 32 | 57 | 11 |
Virginia Senate | Mason-Dixon | 10/30/2008 | 62 | 31 | 7 |
Washington (11) | University of Washington | 10/31/2008 | 51 | 39 | 10 |
Wisconsin (10) | University of Wisconsin | 10/29/2008 | 52 | 42 | 6 |
Wyoming (3) | Research 2000, DailyKos (D) | 10/29/2008 | 36 | 61 | 3 |
Wyoming-A Senate | Research 2000, DailyKos (D) | 10/29/2008 | 35 | 62 | 3 |
Wyoming-B Senate | Research 2000, DailyKos (D) | 10/29/2008 | 35 | 60 | 5 |
If the Dems want to reach 60, there are really only three viable options; they must win two of the following: Kentucky (4.58%), Minnesota (20.4%) and Georgia (7.72). Georgia law requires a runoff election if the winner recieves less than 50% of the vote; this could legitimately happen, but more on this possibility Monday afternoon. If the Democrats are serious about reaching 60, which I assume they are, it would be a wise move to pseudo concede Georgia, and then later fight in the runoff. What an epic battle that could be.
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Poll Update (11/1)
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