Poll Update (10/29): The Ad

By: TJHalva | Comments [0] | Category: Daily Update | 10/29/2008 7:27:53 PM CT

A new poll by Arizona State University now shows Obama within the margin of error in Arizona. Based on this result, the rest of today's polls suddenly seem comparatively irrelevant:

Race	Pollster	EndDate	Dem	Rep	Other
Alaska Senate	Rasmussen Reports	10/28/2008	52	44	4
Alaska (3)	Rasmussen Reports	10/28/2008	41	57	2
Arizona (10)	Arizona State University	10/26/2008	44	46	10
Colorado (9)	Time, CNN	10/28/2008	53	45	2
Colorado (9)	Associated Press-GfK	10/26/2008	50	41	9
Florida (27)	Time, CNN	10/28/2008	51	47	2
Florida (27)	Quinnipiac University	10/26/2008	47	45	8
Georgia (15)	Time, CNN	10/28/2008	47	52	1
Michigan (17)	Rasmussen Reports	10/28/2008	53	43	4
Minnesota (10)	Rasmussen Reports	10/28/2008	55	43	2
Minnesota Senate	Rasmussen Reports	10/28/2008	39	43	18
Missouri (11)	Time, CNN	10/28/2008	48	50	2
Nevada (5)	Associated Press-GfK	10/26/2008	52	40	8
New Hampshire (4)	Associated Press-GfK	10/26/2008	55	37	8
New Mexico (5)	Rasmussen Reports	10/28/2008	54	44	2
North Carolina (15)	Associated Press-GfK	10/26/2008	48	46	6
Ohio (20)	Associated Press-GfK	10/26/2008	48	41	11
Ohio (20)	Quinnipiac University	10/26/2008	51	42	7
Ohio (20)	Marist College	10/26/2008	48	45	7
Pennsylvania (21)	Quinnipiac University	10/26/2008	53	41	6
Pennsylvania (21)	Associated Press-GfK	10/26/2008	52	40	8
Pennsylvania (21)	Marist College	10/26/2008	55	41	4
Pennsylvania (21)	Franklin & Marshall College	10/26/2008	53	40	7
Virginia (13)	Time, CNN	10/28/2008	53	44	3
Virginia (13)	Associated Press-GfK	10/26/2008	49	42	9
Washington (11)	SurveyUSA	10/27/2008	56	39	5
Washington (11)	Strategic Vision (R)	10/26/2008	54	42	4

On other unrelated notes, Obama's 30 minute television ad was aired on seven different TV networks today at 7 PM CT. The ad was a mix of policy and story telling; of the personal stories that were highlighted, one came from Kentucky and another from Missouri. Obama is targeting two deeply red states six days before the election. Obama currently has a 33.66% chance of winning Missouri and a 2.63% chance in Kentucky. The Kentucky spot is likely an appeal to the Senate race while Missouri seems to be legitimately in play.

There was also a new Rasmussen Poll released from Alaska showing Sen. Stevens (R) in a significant amount of trouble; our model now gives Stevens a 99.03% chance of losing.

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