By:
TJHalva |
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Daily Update | 10/27/2008 6:29:49 PM CT
Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska was convicted on seven felony counts relating to his corruption trial. After the verdict was read Steven continued to profess his innocence and went on to say that "this verdict is the result of the unconscionable manner in which the Justice Department lawyers conducted this trial. I ask that Alaskans and my Senate colleagues stand with me as I pursue my rights. I remain a candidate for the United States Senate." If you truly believe that a federal trial was carried out in an "unconscionable manner," you have defied your obligation as a US Senator to uphold the Constitution of the United States' fifth and fourteenth amendment, and thus, you are unfit to hold the office which you seek. The mere absurdity of your reasoning justifies your conviction. Now onto the polls.
Obama now has an outside shot at hitting 400 Electoral Votes. A new poll by Rasmussen places Arizona in the Lean Rep category. If in the next eight days Obama takes the lead in Arizona the election is over. Here were the rest of today's polls:
| Arizona (10) | Northern Arizona University, U of WA | 10/27/2008 | 41 | 49 | 10 |
| Arizona (10) | Rasmussen Reports | 10/26/2008 | 46 | 51 | 3 |
| Arizona (10) | Zimmeran & Associates | 10/19/2008 | 41.5 | 43.5 | 14 |
| Colorado (9) | FOX News, Rasmussen Reports | 10/26/2008 | 50 | 46 | 4 |
| Colorado Senate | Public Opinion Strategies (R) | 10/23/2008 | 51 | 38 | 11 |
| Connecticut (7) | University of Connecticut | 10/22/2008 | 56 | 31 | 13 |
| Florida (27) | Suffolk University, 7News | 10/26/2008 | 47 | 43 | 10 |
| Florida (27) | Datamar Inc | 10/26/2008 | 49.2 | 44.4 | 7 |
| Florida (27) | Reuters, Zogby | 10/26/2008 | 47 | 47 | 6 |
| Florida (27) | FOX News, Rasmussen Reports | 10/26/2008 | 51 | 47 | 2 |
| Illinois Senate | Research 2000, Post-Dispatch | 10/23/2008 | 59 | 34 | 7 |
| Indiana (11) | Reuters, Zogby | 10/26/2008 | 44 | 50 | 6 |
| Iowa (7) | Marist College | 10/24/2008 | 52 | 42 | 6 |
| Mississippi (6) | Press Register, U of Alabama | 10/23/2008 | 33 | 46 | 21 |
| Mississippi-B Senate | Press Register, U of Alabama | 10/23/2008 | 32 | 45 | 23 |
| Missouri (11) | SurveyUSA | 10/26/2008 | 48 | 48 | 4 |
| Missouri (11) | FOX News, Rasmussen Reports | 10/26/2008 | 48 | 47 | 5 |
| Missouri (11) | Reuters, Zogby | 10/26/2008 | 48 | 46 | 6 |
| Nevada (5) | Reuters, Zogby | 10/26/2008 | 48 | 44 | 8 |
| New Hampshire (4) | Marist College | 10/23/2008 | 50 | 45 | 5 |
| New York (31) | Siena | 10/21/2008 | 62 | 31 | 7 |
| North Carolina (15) | FOX News, Rasmussen Reports | 10/26/2008 | 48 | 49 | 3 |
| North Carolina Senate | Public Policy Polling (D) | 10/26/2008 | 48 | 45 | 7 |
| North Carolina (15) | Public Policy Polling (D) | 10/26/2008 | 49 | 48 | 3 |
| North Carolina (15) | Reuters, Zogby | 10/26/2008 | 50 | 46 | 4 |
| Ohio (20) | FOX News, Rasmussen Reports | 10/26/2008 | 49 | 45 | 6 |
| Ohio (20) | Reuters, Zogby | 10/26/2008 | 50 | 45 | 5 |
| Ohio (20) | University of Akron | 10/15/2008 | 44.6 | 40.9 | 14 |
| Oklahoma Senate | TVPoll.com | 10/26/2008 | 41 | 51 | 8 |
| Oklahoma (7) | TVPoll.com | 10/26/2008 | 34.8 | 61.6 | 3 |
| Oregon Senate | SurveyUSA | 10/26/2008 | 49 | 42 | 9 |
| Oregon (7) | SurveyUSA | 10/26/2008 | 57 | 38 | 5 |
| Pennsylvania (21) | Temple University | 10/26/2008 | 50 | 41 | 9 |
| Pennsylvania (21) | Morning Call Tracking | 10/25/2008 | 53 | 41 | 6 |
| Virginia (13) | SurveyUSA | 10/26/2008 | 52 | 43 | 5 |
| Virginia (13) | FOX News, Rasmussen Reports | 10/26/2008 | 51 | 47 | 2 |
| Virginia (13) | Reuters, Zogby | 10/26/2008 | 52 | 45 | 3 |
| Virginia Senate | SurveyUSA | 10/26/2008 | 63 | 32 | 5 |
| Virginia Senate | Washington Post | 10/25/2008 | 61 | 31 | 8 |
| Virginia (13) | Washington Post | 10/25/2008 | 52 | 44 | 4 |
| Virginia (13) | VA Commonwealth Poll | 10/22/2008 | 51 | 40 | 9 |
| Virginia Senate | VA Commonwealth Poll | 10/22/2008 | 61 | 27 | 12 |
| Washington (11) | The Washington Poll | 10/26/2008 | 55 | 34 | 11 |
| West Virginia (5) | Reuters, Zogby | 10/26/2008 | 40 | 50 | 10 |
I've spent the majority of my free time today collating 2004 and 2006 election results. Using this data I hope to provide some historical perspective on Senate Coefficients. Look for it later tonight and look for a follow up to our Bradley Effect Model later in the week.
Update: I incorrectly entered the Senate poll for Virginia taken by VCU as a presidential poll. This has now been corrected; my thanks goes out to "dickelocker" for bringing this to my attention.
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Poll Update (10/27)
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